5/10 NL 6Max - 99

[DOTTT]

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The flush card hitting the turn is not a good enough reason to be done with the hand automatically; in a FULL game where you raised UTG, it often would be.

[/ QUOTE ]

cero I have tremendous respect for your game, but I just cant see hero being ahead here, and he's definitely not getting the implied odds to fill up. utg+1 was described as a tight solid player, the sb as a lag. What do put our opponents on here? What could utg+1 have called the flop bet with? I certainly don't put him on AT or A9 here. The truth is I can only put him on AKd.

I’m not a fan of the river pay either, I would rather just push it in on the turn, but it seems like you didn’t have a plan going into the river, and made up your mind last sec. Although, I like the river push more then a check call line because your opponents are already pot committed and wont be able to get away from a hand like two pair, where else utg+1 can check behind.

[Stupid_Baptist]

How is asking Yeti his logic behind raising 99 to $40 preflop UTG idiot? I didnt even comment on anything, I just asked him his logic. The reason is because I think $40 is too much.

And yes, the river play was idiotic.

But thanks for clearing up that only your opinions are correct.

[neon]

Hey Yeti,

First off, I don't see why people are questioning the UTG raise w/ 99 at a short table. As you and other posters have rightly pointed out, it's more than likely to be the best hand, and I'll make this raise almost every single time six-handed.

Second, I think you need to bet more on the flop. You're in a four-way pot w/ a draw-heavy board and what is sure to be the best hand on the flop. Pot is $160, I would bet at least $150-160 here, and I think this might be a good spot for an overbet on the flop. $200, maybe?

One thing, though. Is the ace on the flop a diamond? This is crucial info, imo, as you're not getting anyone to fold Axd on this board if that's not the case. And it also vastly increases the likelihood that someone hit the nut flush on the turn. . .

As the hand played out, after UTG+1 bets $350 on the turn, and is called by SB, there's ~$1235 in the pot w/ $350 for you to call. I don't think you can fold here, but by calling this bet you're more or less pot-committed on the river (when you have $440 left behind and there's almost $1600 in the pot), and I think it's unlikely that at least one of your opponents doesn't have a flush. I suppose it's possible that both have big aces w/ a big diamond or aces up, and interpreted your flop bet/turn check as a big pair (KK/QQ) that made a standard continuation bet at the flop and then slowed down b/c of the ace, but I'm afraid that's wishful thinking given your description of UTG+1.

Now that I think about it, if you're going to call $350 on the turn, you might as well get it all in right there, and just push instead of check-calling or check-pushing, at least giving yourself some folding equity. On the other hand, however, this seems like a you're-only-getting-called-if-you're-beat situation.

Then again, I keep hearing about how bad the play is in these Party games . . . and you might get called by aces up . . .

Interesting hand. Wish I could come up w/ a better line for you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

-neon

[pdubz]

My gut is to call the turn and fold the river. I think folding the turn might be slightly better. You said UTG+1 is TAG and solid, and like you said yourself, I don't see him having a hand that you beat on the turn. Any solid player is going to reraise you on that flop with two-pair or a set because of its coordination; that you got smooth called indicates to me KQd/QJd. AK/AQ might also call through against a UTG with a laggish image -- but I don't see him betting 2/3 pot on the turn with either of those hand holdings. Especially if he's picked up a backdoor draw with a lone diamond -- check with outs. Same reason why, if he happened to butcher a smooth-called TT, he would be checking here instead of betting. A $200 bet on the turn would allow me to place him on a strong A.

Since your read is that UTG is TAG, and since the pot is multiway with another caller, the first instinct is that you are paying 350 to win anywhere between 1500 -- 3000+. At that point it's difficult for most players to fold the river if you fill up. But SB's involvement with my hand makes me uncomfortable with the cleaness of my outs; and I have an ugly feeling that a small percentage of the time I'm stacking myself against a poorly played two pair. But given SB's laggish tendencies, I actually find it really hard to peg SB on a hand. Shouldn't he have rereaised at some point? I don't see him calling with a lone big diamond. Looks suspicious.

I dislike pushing. UTG+1, if he is truly TAG, has defined his hand through these sequence of actions. He doesn't have AK, and he's not on a draw. Call the turn if you are want to gamble a little bit, but pushing the river seems like you are throwing away chips.

[soah]

I'd really like to know if the ace was one of the flush cards. If it was, it makes it much harder for the "tight, solid" UTG+1 player to have a flush. Would he call a raise with KQs? I tend to muck KQo against a raise even against slightly loose raisers in six-handed games, but sometimes I might get frisky with KQs (I'm not sure if this is good or bad). So, how much does this guy tighten up against raises? It would be nice to have a hand range for him before we see the flop.

Once we get to the flop, what hands would he call with? What would he raise with? Would he just smooth-call with AKo or TT? On the turn, surely he'd bet any made hand when it gets checked to him? A solid player wants to protect against a fourth diamond coming on the river, even if he only has a hand like TPTK.

As for SB - you think one of his possible holdings is two pair? There's been an UTG raise and a call -- surely he's not coming along with AT/A9? His stats don't appear THAT loose. You hold three of the nines, which makes T9 unlikely as well. The turn certainly wouldn't have hit him. When the action gets back to you the second time on the turn, you still haven't seen SB shown any aggression. He has called, check/called, and check/called. For an aggressive player, this is very odd. I have a hard time thinking of what hand he may have, but it doesn't seem very strong. Is there any chance he would play a flush like this? Or would he have played that faster?

Definitely not a fun hand. I'm not completely convinced that checking the turn is correct (because I think you might still be ahead), and I can see the merit in going all-in once there's been a bet and a call to you... as long as you think there's some reasonable chance that you may have the best hand. Although as I alluded to briefly at one point, if you're behind UTG+1, I think a set of tens may be just as likely as a flush. And that would really suck.

[Yeti]

Just to clarify, the Ace on the board was _not_ a diamond.

[neon]

"Just to clarify, the ace on the board was not a diamond."

well, then, yuck.

I think this makes it infinitely more likely that at least one of our guys--most likely UTG+1, since he smooth called your flop bet and then came out swinging on the turn when the three-flush hit--has the nut flush.

I think I still have a really hard time getting away from a set on the turn, but given the pot size and your stack once you get to the river, I think a fold at the river would be a mistake? (I'm not a math guy, tho, so if this is wrong, someone please correct me here)

So I guess if you're folding, it's on the turn . . . but you're gonna need some pretty strong reads to do so. First, you say he's "very solid," but is UTG+1 capable of firing essentially a pot-sized bet on the turn WITHOUT the flush? His line sure seems like Ax [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to me; smooth-calling the flop, wanting SB to come along for the ride and not wanting to open the door for a big re-raise from hero if hero does have a set he'll want to protect on that flop, and then betting pot on the turn, just big enough of a bet that it'll more or less pot commit hero to calling off the rest of his stack on the river if he calls on the turn.

Also, you said that SB is aggressive post-flop. What do you make of his passivity here? A hand he wants to showdown, like aces up or a baby flush? Or is he the type to slow down w/ a monster?

I don't know Yeti. This is a tricky spot for sure, and I'm going back and forth between pushing and folding on the turn as your best move. I really think the turn is the crucial point of the hand . . .

FWIW . . .

-neon

[quix0tic]

Call the turn and check fold the river. I genuinely don't see what is so marginal about either of these decisions. There are a lot of hand combinations not involving top 2 that the villains can have, and folding this turn 6 handed with 2 callers ahead and killing action is weak. On the flop it seems clear at least one of them has a flush draw and by the turn its even more certain. I understand it's a big pot but that doesn't change the opponents cards. You are beat and know it; only by some freak combination of loose play and luck will you ever be good here. Save your money.

99 should be raised any position 6max. I don't even think its close. I raise deuces and up utg. A case could be made for limping with baby pairs but not medium/high ones.

[Jdanz]

10 out of 46 on the river where he's likely to get at least one call of his all in, if he was behind when he made the call t start with. if he's getting 3-1 with a chance to make maybe 1.5 to 3 more i think his Imp odds are closer then we're giving creit for.

That said, i fold the turn, as i don't really think they're there, and i don't know if i'd be able to fold on the river, but it's closer then some have said.

-JDanz

[chumdawg]

When you say you were called in both spots, do you mean exactly that (neither player raised)? How big were their stacks?