Should I have listened to my Spider Sense

[Penguin]

15-30

I have 9c10c in the small blind. There are two callers, then the button raises. The button is quite aggressive and reasonably good.

I call - there are already 3 in, and this big blind will call 98% of the time in this situation.

The Flop: 9d, 8s, 5c

I check, planning to check raise if the button is the bettor. This button will bet most of the time it is checked to him, no matter what he has, and the checkraise is my best chance to protect a fairly vulnerable top pair. Like clockwork, they all check to the button, who bets. I check raise, and like clockwork everyone folds to the button who calls.

This call (without a reraise) makes me pretty sure he does not have an overpair.

Turn: 2c

Good - not an overcard, and it gives me a flush draw too. I bet, button calls. As he calls, it flashes through my head that he is probably on a flush draw - he could have AK and be drawing to his overcards, but my feeling was flush draw. And if he is on a flush draw, it has to be bigger than mine, given that he raised before the flop.

River: 6c

I made my flush. But I think for a while. I had put him on a flush draw, and if that's true, I'm beat. In the end, I just could not check a flush heads up. So I bet, got raised, made a groaning call, and was shown QcJc.

What do you think - should I have checked to induce a bluff and minimize losses?

[brad]

if he has overcards he cant call.

u might bet for metareasons tho

[Dynasty]

if he has overcards he cant call.

Really? Why?

And why can't he have a hand worth calling with that can't beat a flush?

It's a clear value bet on the river. I think it's paranoid to fear a bigger club flush draw.

[brad]

well if he thinks AK-ish and guy wont call w/o pair.

going by posters descrip.

[J_V]

There are players that won't call without a pair obviously. If he is wearing the shirt that says I don't call the river without a pair, check. In the real world, checking is unrealistic. He could be on a host of other hands. Easy bet.

[mikelow]

Act on your read and save a bet by checking and calling.

[astroglide]

i get weird/accurate reads on backdoor flushes from people every so often too. i still bet just incase heh.

[laxrulz777]

the way i read it there are only 2 hands that fit the post flop betting... 7-10o or 2 overcards in clubs (obviously he semi-bluffed with the QJc)... the 7-10o seems like it would be VERY unlikely considering the pre-flop raise and your statement that he was "reasonably good"... also consider that the bottom end of the overcards throws in some gut shot straight possibilities...

What hand could he have reasonably had (given the previous betting) that he would call your bet but still lose with? 7-10o and that is pretty unlikely (given the pre-flop raise)...

[soda]

I'm the same way. I get these tells frequently, but have taught myself to value bet anyway. The tells aren't accurate enough in my case. It's just the positive reinforcement we get once in a while by making such a remarkable read is so powerful. Deceptive though.

Value bet.

soda

[Ed Miller]

It's just the positive reinforcement we get once in a while by making such a remarkable read is so powerful.

I agree... when we listen to the "spider sense" and it is correct, we say, "wow... boy can I read!" When we don't listen to the "spider sense" we say, "how stupid... I had the read and didn't act on it." When we listen to it and it turns out we had a value bet (by far most common in situations like this) we say, "whew, I won the pot."

I think this is just another way that we convince ourselves not to bet strong hands for value... we "smelled" something. If you can't articulate why you are making a read beyond "smelling" something, then you don't have a strong enough read to act on... at least not in a limit game.