do the odds for a dog generally get better or worse in terms of...

ojsdaman · #1 03-09-2005, 04:23 PM

Say I want to bet on a dog
1. are my odds better on the spread early, or just before the game
2. same thing with the money line
what is the general trend as the game nears

3. is there a specific sports book at offers the most "money lines" (for instance, when a team is favored by 20 and the money line is off on my sports book, is there a good chance another sports book offers the money line
i use superbook and pinnacle.
thanks

QuickLearner · #2 03-09-2005, 04:43 PM

The conventional wisdom is that more money is wagered on favorites. So, waiting until the last minute should give you the best odds on the underdog as the sportsbooks slowly adjust the line to make the favorite a less appetizing play (to balance their action). The moneyline works the same way.

There is a good chance that you can catch the ML somewhere else. But if the books start taking the ML down you should be asking yourself why.

ojsdaman · #3 03-09-2005, 04:51 PM

quick learner- thankyou very much for your imput

the reason i was asking on the money line is for example
say a feel a team will win the game 15 % of the time but I am getting 10/1 odds..isnt it worth me putting a few dollars down on that game
also..i am not big on parlays, but in your opinion, are parlays better with betting on all spreads or moneylines with an underdog

QuickLearner · #4 03-09-2005, 05:26 PM

You're welcome.

I see your point about the overlay, and I know I'll catch some flack for saying it, but you probably could use your money on an easier play than a 15%'er unless you can stand the bankroll swings. I'll play them, but not for a full unit, and I'm good about not kicking myself when they win.

Parlays are interesting. Because I only play baseball and hockey its the ML for me. Most people will tell you not to play parlays because of the increased vig (actually, 3-teamers are about the same...you do take a hit with 2-teamers). But I find them useful in a few situations. I have had success parlaying big favorites. Not all... I won't lay more than about -165 on a favorite straight bet. But if there are two big favorites that are worth playing I'll parlay them occasionally.

I've had some big paydays when I find a 7:00 pm favorite to match up with a 10:30 pm dog. That way if the fav falls I can still get a bet in on the late game. Kind of a square play, but fun. I have to like both games a lot, though.

Parlays can also reduce your exposure if one of those rare days happen when you find 8 or 10 games that deserve consideration for a play. Pick 4 or 6 of them and team them up in 2 or 3-way parlays to reduce the $$ amount you have in action. Maybe the whole 10?