J9s on the bubble

[montybear]

Don't have the exact hand, but the particulars are easily remembered. $11 SNG on Party
Four left, BB is t300. Lots of raises taking the blinds by the big stacks. The other short stack and I are both hoping the other busts, or so it seems.

SB ~3000
Hero BB ~800 before posting
UTG ~3000
Button ~700

SB posts, BB posts, UTG folds, button pushes, SB folds...
BB does what?

Results and thoughts in white
<font color="white"> I figure that he's pushing any ace, or broad way cards. I might be dominated, but if I give up my blind here, i'm out of the SNG in the next four hands. Plus, he's the only guy that can't bust me. I call, he flips over big slick. I catch the nine and bust him. He then stays around for the rest of the tourny (which i go on to win) railbirding and calling me a stupid %$#^^$ for calling his all in. I think about righting back that for the hand I put him on, I had the odds to call. Instead i just right back 'ha ha ha, you suck buddy'. Man that felt good to catch some after four days of getting busted by 5 outers. </font>

[Voltron87]

You have to call. You can't let 3/8s of your stack be blinded off without extreme extenuating (sp?) circumstances. And J9s has great odds here against a push hands.

[mackthefork]

Yeah you have to call here getting near 3-1, hes the one I least like to have to call though, do you see why?

Mack

[montybear]

Actually Mack, I don't see why (no sarcasm).
my thinking is that sure, there is a better chance that the big stacks are stealing, but if i call and lose to them i'm out. if i let this guy take my blind, then he just waits for me to get blinded out. i realize that the chances of him stealing are less, but i'd rather take my chances against the guy who won't bust me. that's just my thinking and could be way off.

[Voltron87]

At this point in the SNG you just can't let 3/8s of your stack be blinded off. You are getting almost 3-1 on your money (actually better than that since there is the SB). You have to call.

[Phil Van Sexton]

You win 40% vs AKo.

Fold ICM = 0.0996
Call vs AKo = 0.1283

This is only a fold if he shows you AA-JJ.

[Shanemex]

You had to call and it's not even close. I would probably call with any two cards here, but that may be going a little too far. You're getting over 2.5-1 odds, so you're getting about the right price even if you are dominated by AJ, A9, etc.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually Mack, I don't see why (no sarcasm).
my thinking is that sure, there is a better chance that the big stacks are stealing, but if i call and lose to them i'm out. if i let this guy take my blind, then he just waits for me to get blinded out. i realize that the chances of him stealing are less, but i'd rather take my chances against the guy who won't bust me. that's just my thinking and could be way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats all I meant he is obviously going to have a lot smaller range than the other two, I'd rather be in against one of them any day, but having said that, you can't fold this ever.

Mack