My AK/AQ ain't hitting at 32.4% -- normal?

[dabluebery]

Either your sample size is too small, or this thread is worthless without pics. Not sure.

Definitely don't ignore the instances when you have AK / AQ and there is no flop, as an earlier poster suggested.

[randomfish]

And how do you propose I check the result of flops of hands when there was no flop? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But honestly, how can those hands have any bearing on the result? No matter which AK hands I choose -- say I decided to look only at A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], for instance -- I should still hit at least one A or K ~32.4% of the time with that subset of my AK hands. If the sample size is good (and I'm well aware that such may not be the case in the OP), and my hit percentage is less than this, I'm either getting cold-decked or there is some other reason -- some of the aces and kings are in the hands of the callers, for instance.

I guess I could rephrase the original question to something like: how do you calculate the SD of your hit percentage with AK?

[barongreenback]

[ QUOTE ]

I guess I could rephrase the original question to something like: how do you calculate the SD of your hit percentage with AK?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you give the hit chance between 0 and 1( so you'd expect a mean of about .32) then I think the SD is around 0.5(bit less).
If this is right you'll find that your sample size is too small( 95% confindence interval +-0.09 from the mean).
There'll actually be people out there with this sample size having <20% or >45% hit rates.

I've done this in a hurry so if I'm wrong don't jump on me anyone. I'd advise a better pattern mapper anyway. Why leave things to chance. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Cobra]

This can be thought of as a binomial distribution with probability of success as .324 and probability of failure of .676. With 129 AK you should have had a hit 129*.324=41.8 times. Your std deviation would be the square root of n*ps*pf=129*.324*.676=square root of 28.26 which is 5.31. You are less than one std deviation away from the mean. You should be within 1.1 std deviation at least 17.3% and outside that 82.6%.

Cobra

[AngusThermopyle]

But honestly, how can those hands have any bearing on the result?

You said you were dealt AK a total of 129 times.
Did you get a flop every single time? All 129 times?
If you raised every time and got no calls 19 times, you actually saw the flop with AK 110 times.
You said you have hit at least one A or K a total of 37 times. If this was in 110 flops ( instead of 129 hands ), your percentage is 33.6%. Closer to the expected results.

If the 129 hands are just the times that there was a flop, then you have a different situation. Then if you are playing against hands of BC and DF, you might infer that at least one of B,C,D, or F is an A or K, perhaps 2 are. That would mean your odds of flopping an A or K would decrease.

[blingice]

TEKEE

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