Is the gap concept applicable at $30+3 and below?

[Hawkeye27]

First of all I'm running bad and may be grasping for straws so bear with me.

The formula for beating these lower level SnG's simplified: Get to Level 4 without risking chips. Actively start trying to steal the blinds from vulnerable stacks based on the gap theory. They will only call with x% of hands because they wont risk busting out with less valuable hands. Base your steals on stacks sizes, position, looseness of opponents, and your cards. Build your stack with these blind steals to reach the money. If you get called its usually a coin flip so half the time you'll win.

Here is my thoughts on a typical blind steal.

Blinds $150/300
UTG 1900
CO 2300
Hero 1100
SB 900
BB 1800

Folded to me with K9s on the BTN. Ok I have folding equity here. I havent seen these players make questionable calls. The small blind only has 150 invested and will probably only call with 10's on up, AQ and AK. The BB is a bigger stack and shouldn't feel the pressure to call. He may call with 99 on up, AJ, and KQ. I may not get a better chance than this to steal the blinds. The number of times they fold coupled with the number of times they call and I win make this a good push.

The problem I have is the range of hands. I cant see the cards that they throw away, but it seems like I am constantly getting called with hands I never would have guessed they'd call with. In fact it seems like they are calling with the same range of hands I'm raising with. Any pair, any ace, and decent kings. No matter what position, chip stack, or bubble situation. It's just "I have a good hand (KJo, 66), I call". If I factor those hands into the equation it makes pushing these hands bad moves (or does it because of my short stack?).

Lorinda posted awhile back something to the effect of "Base your play on what your opponents WILL do and not what they SHOULD do." Even though I havent seen this player makes dumb calls and he's been folding to every steal so far he's still a typical Party Poker $20 SNG monkey.

I've probably posted 50 questionable pushes over the last 3 weeks and seem to have a good feel for what the forum feels should be push situations, but I'm starting to feel like I may be playing too aggressively and should just sit back and let the monkeys make mistakes more often. Especially the way they usually play 3-way or heads-up.

This is based on over 1000 SNG's over the last several weeks. Is my thinking biased based on results or a bad run? Is it simply the result of never seeing the hundreds of times the monkeys throw away their 77 or KQ?

Sorry for the length but this has been bothering me for some time.

[FishBurger]

I think you need to factor in the size of the stacks. SB only has 900 chips (750 after posting), so his calling range is likely much larger than you give him credit for. I imagine SB would call with any pocket pair and maybe any two broadway cards.

However, I still think you have to push allin here because you are a favorite against two random hands and this may be your best chance to steal until the blinds hit you again.

[Scuba Chuck]

In the situation described, I only push with AQ, AK, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.

[therock]

Scuba - you must be kidding. A7-AJ are easy pushes, KQ, and even mid pocket pairs. He is in 4th place and needs chips. In his particular situation, I would push K9, and probably some suited connectors (8,9).

[Slim Pickens]

By the end of the week, I hope to have a comprehensive list of all the hands that called my steals in Level 4 and above over the course of 180 11's. Then we'll see what these jerks like to have when they call.

Slim

[Hawkeye27]

Thanks for the response Scuba, I play with you all the time. I'm kind of shocked at your respone though. Is it your thoughts that you will get a better opportunity before the blinds give you no FE? Or do you think that even with 650 chips after the blinds you will have a better chance to steal or double up?

[Hawkeye27]

Hmmm.. That may be a good point, although it usually seems to be the BB that calls, while the SB usually only calls with premium hands. Perhaps I set this hand up poorly to illustrate my point.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
In the situation described, I only push with AQ, AK, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

So with everyone around 5x bb, when do you steal? Only when folded to you in SB? That seems like you'd be blinded out of fold equity pretty quickly and would only be shooting for limping into 3rd.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
In the situation described, I only push with AQ, AK, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck.

Yugoslav

[Phil Van Sexton]

If you have been stealing a lot, it becomes clear to your opponents that you are aware of the Gap Concept yourself and are raising with less than great hands. Your opponents (especially the ones to your left) will notice and adjust. The Gap closes.

The BB has already posted 300, so he needs to call 800 to win 1550 (your 1100 plus 450 in blinds). If he thinks it's a coinflip, is it wrong for him to call?

When you push and the BB has 66, he has to make a decision. He can keep folding to your steals, or he can make a stand. He's pretty sure that you'd do some min-raise foolishness with AA-QQ, so he's mostly worried about JJ-77. Of course, you could also have 55-22, A5, A6, 72o, etc. With 66, he's probably close to 50% against what you might be pushing.

You could argue that he could fold and steal blinds himself. However, he is in the same spot you are: ie. the gap is closing and his opponents are going to start looking him up on his steal attempts.

Most people don't subscribe to the "I'm going to avoid all gambles and steal/fold my way into the money" that many 2+2ers have. They think "I'm close to 50% to win with 66 and I'm getting almost 2:1 on my call, so I call because I probably won't get a better spot than this."