I'm pretty sure I'm behind to a bigger PP - Page 3

fimbulwinter · #21 03-07-2005, 04:53 AM

um, nope

fim

fimbulwinter · #22 03-07-2005, 04:56 AM

where did i ever say anything about the preflop call or calling 10% of your stack being a good bet?

I simply said that set over set certainly does not happen 20% of the time given this hand. I showed why and why your calculations were giving an overinflated estimate. I think i've more than proven this.

fim

soah · #23 03-07-2005, 05:05 AM

I said it was close to 20%. In reality it's 16.5%, with another 3.2% chance of losing to a flush or straight. Big deal.

fimbulwinter · #24 03-07-2005, 05:18 AM

i give up.

fim

Kaz The Original · #25 03-07-2005, 12:16 PM

It obviously cannot be 20% of the time you play this hand... you're going to be playing past the flop 1 in 8 times, so already the chance of set over set are 12.5%. But then, he's going to have a set by the river 1 in 5 times, so thats 1 in 5 of 12.5%, or 20% of 12.5%, around 5% of the time. You should hit set over set 5% of the time, assuming your opponent always goes to the river when you hit a set, which is not correct, so it's even smaller.