Interesting 3-6 problem

[Clarkmeister]

A few thoughts:

Stu - I think Dynasty makes a great point. There aren't any aces folding for 2 bets on this flop in a live LL table. This table in particular, no ace would fold to checkraise pressure. Given the texture of the board, I don't think a better hand will fold.

Riff - I wasn't involved. You need to stop speed reading. [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img]

At the table I thought that betting was fine, probabaly better than checkraising since KK is really unlikely to raise here given the board texture. Hero could then fold to a raise.

The problem is that the pot is too big at that point to fold to a raise. Assuming the probable AK, hero has the 2-2's, 3-3's and 1-A as outs while getting 15-1 on a call. He simply can't bet and fold to a raise.

Going for a checkraise doesn't seem great either because you can't get a better hand to fold, and all worse hands are drawing nearly dead.

I think check-calling is the preferred option here. I'm surprised no one mentioned it.

On the turn, I think that since he bet the flop, he should checkraise. Since he led, 3-betting seems best. If he had simply check-called, I would have checkraised the turn.

Result: Hero calls turn. River makes the final board [A223]K. Hero check-calls and loses to AA.

[Vehn]

Personally I think check calling the flop is terrible. What does that tell you? If you check-call the flop and its heads-up to the turn, do you fold to a bet? Of course not, and you'll wind up paying off a better ace the whole way, as you don't know anything. If you checkraise the flop and get 3-bet, you can safely fold on the turn most of the time and save yourself money, and I think its better than betting out as if someone coldcalls the checkraise you can pretty much narrow their hand down to Ax or a 2. Yes I realize that this is a "way ahead or way behind" situation but against most LL players you can save yourself some money here when behind rather than just ATM'ing it (check calling), and frequently people get married to their big pairs and will pay you off as well. Of the outs you listed only 3 give him the whole pot against AK, not worth chasing at 15-1.

[Clarkmeister]

The more I think about this hand, the more I think check-calling is very clearly the correct play, and checkraising is by far the worst play.

"If you checkraise the flop and get 3-bet, you can safely fold on the turn"

First, no you can't (see below) and second, why not see the river for the same price?

Dynasty is correct in his posts detailing why checkraising is bad.


"Of the outs you listed, only 3 give you the whole pot vs AK, not worth chasing at 15-1"

Please elaborate on this. Maybe its just me, but I can still spend the money I win in split pots. The fact is that against a big ace, you have 3 outs to win, and 1.5 additional outs from the 3 chop cards. Against AQ, AJs you have even more outs to half the pot. Plus you may have the best hand. Plus you have a backdoor straight flush draw. 15-1 is an enourmous price on the flop.

As for the turn:

Take this hand for example. 6 people see the flop and you checkraise and only PFR is around and he 3-bets.

We can now assume:
PFR has an ace as one of his cards with a reasonable kicker.
None of the 4 people who folded have either an ace or a deuce.

Pretend the turn is a blank, say an 8.

Now you have 39 unknown cards. 3 of them give a win vs AK and 3 give a chop (for simplicity AA is cancelled by the times PFR has AQ, AJ, etc). 4.5 outs from the 36 remaining cards. You are making a misake folding at 8-1.

[Vehn]

I wrote a long response, decided it was all crap, and will just say I think the BB is all out screwed in this hand [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img]. I will say that while check calling may be right in this case, I just don't like it. I don't like letting gutshots and backdoor flushes draw cheap in an already large pot. For this reason I prefer checkraising over betting out. Plus I think you get a better read on if you're ahead or behind by checkraising versus betting out. Also there is a reasonable chance you'll get out a hand like A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] from a weak player. I think checkraising slightly increases the odds of him winning/splitting the pot.

Dunno, I think he's screwed no matter what way he plays it and all of his options only end up with him getting it up different orifices.

[Stu Pidasso]

Dynasty is correct in saying you do not need to put two bet pressure on the individual players. You (and I) don't like this ideal because of the schooling effect fish have in the game. Its a good size pot and the priority should be to win it. The players between you and the PFR do not have enough outs individually to warrant putting on two bet pressure. Its only when you combine their outs and think of these three individual players as a single entity (the school of fish)that it begins to make sense to turn on the pressure by check raising.

If I were programming a bot to play a strategy that maximized EV, I think a check calling strategy would be correct here. As a player who enjoys leveraging table image to gain EV in future hands, I would check raise to increase my chance of winning this particular pot. Also, Its still early in the hand, and can exit if it becomes apparent that it is I who is drawing dead(or near dead).

Stu

[bernie]

"Dunno, I think he's screwed no matter what way he plays it and all of his options only end up with him getting it up different orifices. "

im gonna be laughin on this one for quite a while!!! hahahaha\

sounds like youve been getting sucked out on quite a bit lately......*snirk...lololol* oh...that was too good a line...

b