PP100NL - stacking off w/bottom 2 on flop

[BobboFitos]

good news is you're not likely facing a bigger two pair.

bad news is you're basically dead vs top set or mid set.

Stupid min raise...

Cant fault your play.

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I figure he has top pair, diamonds, 45, 78, or maybe a set. 77-88 would also be possible. When he pushes, I remove 77-88 from that list but I think the rest of it's about the same.

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I think overpair are unlikely, and TP only if this player has overplayed a hand like A9 or K9 before.

I think you're looking at a big draw, so 45 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 78 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

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How's my line? What would you do if he just flat-calls the $20 flop bet? I'm never a huge fan of bottom two, and even less so with 100BB, but I thought I was ahead too often not to play them strongly.

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Your third raise actually needs to be a bit larger.

If it's a bit larger it's an easy push on any safe turn. Any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] aside from the 6 and it's tricky. I'd give less credit to a straight card so you might have to push into the nuts. If 9 pairs you still could have best hand vs draw but it might be a good time to release.

[ethan]

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Your third raise actually needs to be a bit larger.

If it's a bit larger it's an easy push on any safe turn. Any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] aside from the 6 and it's tricky. I'd give less credit to a straight card so you might have to push into the nuts. If 9 pairs you still could have best hand vs draw but it might be a good time to release.

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What would you raise it to? Raising the pot would make it 22 with $75 left behind, so a turn push would be 1.5x the pot. Raising 1.5x the pot on the flop would be to 30, so if he calls that my turn push would then be exactly the pot. The latter sounds about like what you're going for.

If I took this line I'd certainly push on any of the straight cards, I'd probably give up on a diamond, and I'm not sure what I'd do on a 9. If he flat-calls a raise to 30 on the flop, doesn't that make his hand look more like a draw than a pair?

[BobboFitos]

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Your third raise actually needs to be a bit larger.

If it's a bit larger it's an easy push on any safe turn. Any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] aside from the 6 and it's tricky. I'd give less credit to a straight card so you might have to push into the nuts. If 9 pairs you still could have best hand vs draw but it might be a good time to release.

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What would you raise it to? Raising the pot would make it 22 with $75 left behind, so a turn push would be 1.5x the pot. Raising 1.5x the pot on the flop would be to 30, so if he calls that my turn push would then be exactly the pot. The latter sounds about like what you're going for.

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Yes, sounds good.

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If I took this line I'd certainly push on any of the straight cards, I'd probably give up on a diamond, and I'm not sure what I'd do on a 9. If he flat-calls a raise to 30 on the flop, doesn't that make his hand look more like a draw than a pair?

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Yes, I said you'd have to push on a straight card even if it means pushing into the nuts
this is because there are too many straight cards to pin point his exact hand.

Yeah, if he flatcalls the 30 it's basically saying he'll go all in, as with a big draw he'll have odds on the turn. A draw moving in after you've put in a 3rd raise from the blind can not expect good fold equity, except against your exact hand. And even then I'm not sure getting the price you are letting go of bottom two is correct.

[ethan]

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If I took this line I'd certainly push on any of the straight cards, I'd probably give up on a diamond, and I'm not sure what I'd do on a 9. If he flat-calls a raise to 30 on the flop, doesn't that make his hand look more like a draw than a pair?

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Yes, I said you'd have to push on a straight card even if it means pushing into the nuts
this is because there are too many straight cards to pin point his exact hand.

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I phrased that poorly. I was only referring to what I'd do if a 9 hit.

It puts any flush draw with the 6d ahead of me, and gives the others 3 more outs per card they have above 6. I'm still ahead of 7d8d, albeit only 55/45. Against the other flush draws (4d5d, QdJd) I'm ahead about 70/30. I'm drawing dead against trips, and behind 90/10 against an overpair. I assume a set would have pushed the flop, but I have 4 outs against 333 and 2 to a chop against 666.

If I check the turn he'll likely take the free card with a draw and bet hands that beat me. (The one exception would be a draw trying to represent trips and move me off an overpair.)

Man. I don't know where I'm going with this. I started this reply hoping I'd come up with something insightful about what to do on a 9, and it just hasn't hit me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]