I Need To Take a Leak (out of my game)

Dave H. · #1 03-05-2005, 10:00 AM

I posted this elsewhere and it was suggested that I post here instead. Didn't get many responses and it seems like a common occurrence so I could use some help here:

Microlimits... .25/.50 ...no overly agressive play but nothing supertight either.

I have K 9o, the board flops A 9 3 rainbow, I'm in mid position, and it's one bet to me with the small blind betting and 3 or 4 callers to me. No one has shown a great deal of strength. I'm assuming I have the pot odds to call (i.e. 5 outs) and that, if I hit a King or another nine, I will probably win the hand.

See, the problem is, I almost ALWAYS fold in this situation and I believe it's a leak. Maybe I'm answering my own question, but I still have doubts about staying in the hand in this type of situation.

In GENERAL, should this hand be played further?

P.S..I already realize that I should normally fold preflop but I'm asking on principle.

djshawk · #2 03-05-2005, 10:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I already realize that I should normally fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

do it then and you wouldn't have to make these decisions.

thesharpie · #3 03-05-2005, 10:23 AM

It depends on the size of the pot. I'm going to estimate the size at about 6SB before the flop.. flops, and 11 SB when action's on you.

It also depends on the amount of people left to act after you, and how aggressive they are.

Even if someone does raise you're probably getting the right price, as long as it doesn't come back capped, but that's usually unlikely.

Given the information given [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I'd call, getting about 8 to 1, there is 11 SB in the pot, and you'll make alot more if you hit one of your 5 outs, assuming you have the best hand when you hit one of your outs.

But think about more than the rank of your hand when deciding to call, not just I have mid pair high kicker. Think about the size of the pot, the future size of the pot if you hit one of your cards, and whether someone is likely to raise after you, and if they are likely, are you getting the right price to potentially pay 2 or more bets?

Sometimes you'll even want to raise a hand like this, but it's not the right play here.

JoeC1948 · #4 03-05-2005, 10:23 AM

I don't think this hand should be played in the first place. K9o is a Sklansy 8. Your odds of having the best hand at the river are only 12% preflop. Even after the flop (you have 11 outs) yours odds are only 15%. You would need at least 7:1 pot odds to make it worth staying. On the other hand, if you are at my table, I would love to see you take that all the was to SD [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

thesharpie · #5 03-05-2005, 10:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I already realize that I should normally fold preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

do it then and you wouldn't have to make these decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

He should play K9s in that position, and assuming one of his suit isn't on board, the decision is pretty much identical to K9o.

TALLBrad · #6 03-05-2005, 01:12 PM

The bigger leak to fix is to avoid playing the hand pre-flop. You most likely will get dominated by another hand. Best case is to have the 9 be Top Pair so the K is your kicker. I've folded this hand everytime pre-flop except when the big blind and one time when I attempted a steal and met aggression from BB on an A overcard flop.

Do you continue? Simple pot-odds question:
To call on the flop the pot must be laying you odds of 8.4 : 1. So in the case of the 0.25/0.50 games the pot must be $2.10 to make it correct to call.

Same issue will come up on the turn if you don't hit. You will need 8.2:1 or $4.10 in the pot to make it correct to call.

Dave H. · #7 03-05-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It depends on the size of the pot. I'm going to estimate the size at about 6SB before the flop.. flops, and 11 SB when action's on you.

It also depends on the amount of people left to act after you, and how aggressive they are.

Even if someone does raise you're probably getting the right price, as long as it doesn't come back capped, but that's usually unlikely.

Given the information given I'd call, getting about 8 to 1, there is 11 SB in the pot, and you'll make alot more if you hit one of your 5 outs, assuming you have the best hand when you hit one of your outs.

But think about more than the rank of your hand when deciding to call, not just I have mid pair high kicker. Think about the size of the pot, the future size of the pot if you hit one of your cards, and whether someone is likely to raise after you, and if they are likely, are you getting the right price to potentially pay 2 or more bets?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for thoughtful response.

I will change my pocket from K9o to K9s so that we don't get stuck on whether I should have folded preflop. So I have K9s and the flop falls A 9 3 rainbow with NONE of my suit (to eliminate a backdoor flush possibility).

I did state that, at the time of my decision, I had the pot odds to call. With mid pair, I see 5 outs to a probable best hand. So, on the flop, I need pot odds of about 8.5 to 1 and let's assume there are 10 bets in the pot.

To refine my assumptions a bit more, I do NOT expect any raises.

To repeat: I'm wondering whether, in this type of situation, I have a leak by automatically folding this type of hand after seeing the flop.

TALLBrad · #8 03-05-2005, 01:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I did state that, at the time of my decision, I had the pot odds to call. With mid pair, I see 5 outs to a probable best hand. So, on the flop, I need pot odds of about 8.5 to 1 and let's assume there are 10 bets in the pot.

To refine my assumptions a bit more, I do NOT expect any raises.

To repeat: I'm wondering whether, in this type of situation, I have a leak by automatically folding this type of hand after seeing the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are answering your own question. If you have pot odds to call it is not a leak. A leak is calling when you will not get paid the proper amount (like most casino bets).

DMBFan23 · #9 03-05-2005, 02:05 PM

one thing to think about is how close to closing the action you are. I find this important for two reasons.

1) the likelihood of it being raised behind you. if you're directly next to act after the bettor in a multiway pot, then there are many players behind you who could raise. this is worth considering even more if one of the players behind you raised preflop. if you are directly to the bettor's right, then you get to see how everyone else reacts to his bet before you have to call or fold. this is called relative position, and it's a good thing to keep in mind usually.

2) if I make my hand, my relative position will allow me to trap the people in between myself and the bettor for extra bets, becaues they have to act before I raise. if I act directly after the bettor, a raise will shut many players out of the pot.

...just something else to think about other than your hand versus the size of the pot.

Good Luck,

Kevin

OrianasDaad · #10 03-05-2005, 04:28 PM

As others (and yourself) have pointed out, playing K9o in middle position is a bad idea, especially with many pre-flop callers. K9o doesn't play well enough multi-way to be profitable.

You flopped middle pair with a decent kicker. You have no backdoor draws, and a raise won't increase your odds of winning the hand (someone almost certainly has an ace) since the field will call your raise. If your raise might buy you the button, you might take a free card on the turn. You'll need passive opponents to do this.

You certainly can't overcall with this marginal hand. You've got two options:

Fold - The ace on the flop and the many callers tend to lead me into this situation. Many loose, passive players play any ace.

Raise - If I thought I could buy a free look at the river, I might take this route. However, all those callers will get the same look - so I'm probably obliged to bet again on the turn, even if it's checked to me, to increase my pot equity by folding out some other players. There's also a few cards that can come that kill your hand on the turn. Any A, Q, J, T or 3 devalue my hand considerably. I'd probably take a free card if one of these cards comes.

The problem with marginal hands is that they tend to lose more money when they miss than they win when they hit. Your immediate fold equity here is close to nil, and by building a large multi-way pot with a marginal hand, you set yourself up to invest quite a bit of money with a likely second or third best hand. I fold this just about every time.

If you were the big blind, then you might be able to profitably raise here. Facing the field with two bets cold will improve your chances of winning this pot on the turn or river.

In general, it is a bad idea to overcall with marginal hands that don't have a chance to improve to the nuts or near-nuts. Remember that in general you need a better hand than the bettor to call.