NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship (NHPC) - Questions For Pros

[3rdEye]

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No bet has a chance of being "far and away the best play" without being at or near the longest odds offered. Looking at the players who are 55-1 or worse, the following players (at least) don't belong in the bottom quintile: Hennigan, M. Tran, T. Brunson, Bibb.

If you're thinking of someone who is listed better than 55-1 then you're wrong, unless this is a trick question. There's no way anyone offers as much overlay (or more likely, as little underlay) at 45-1 or worse as Bibb or Elezra at 75-1.

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No far picking so many. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Todd Brunson is who I had in mind. Thought maybe 'far and away' was a bit strong as, like you note, there are other world-class players like Hennigan and Elezra lurking down there.

I love Todd at 55-1 though. One of the world's best players and a murderer in heads-up play. (from my admittedly very second and third-hand knowledge)

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I thought J. Harman was considered one of the best at HU NLHE.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Geez, BoDog must make a lot of money. These are pretty much all terrible bets, and the best of them aren't that good. And some of them are just pitiful. When I scrolled down, I saw the lines for the Bay 101 Shooting Stars tournament, and they've got 22 players who pay less than 20-1. Nobody in the world is better than a 20-1 favorite to win an event with 440 players. And the top of the list, Mike Mizrachi, wouldn't be a good bet at 5-1 even if he was a certified psychic. Nothing against Mike, as I've heard he's very good, but nobody is that good.

God himself ought to pay at least 50-1.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Cheeseweasel]

Q: Do you use an equilibrium strategy to counter your opponent's strategy? Approximately what percentage of pros know how to use equilibrium strategy?

Q: Are you familiar with Alex Selby's optimal preflop headup strategy? If so, do you find it useful in headup and blinds play?

[Sponger15SB]

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These are pretty much all terrible bets, and the best of them aren't that good. And some of them are just pitiful. When I scrolled down, I saw the lines for the Bay 101 Shooting Stars tournament, and they've got 22 players who pay less than 20-1. Nobody in the world is better than a 20-1 favorite to win an event with 440 players.

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They've got you at 15-1 which is horrible. If the line drops to like 18-1 I'm gonna throw down my last $1,000 on you though [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

[freekobe]

I am off to Vegas tonight. Appreciate everyone's suggestions. I hope to use many of the questions when I talk to the players in the tournament. I expect the tournament to be a success and hope everyone watches in May.

Thanks again.

[drewjustdrew]

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Whoa Nellie! Sorry to beat a dead horse, but John Hennigan 55/1, Jerry Buss 55/1 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

This is a HU championship right? Am I the only one who saw Lane Flack just run all over Buss's carcass HU on WPT?

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Those odds are horrible considering Hennigan's proven skill and experience, but your example is equally horrible. Layne Flack had an enormous chip lead on Buss when they went heads up. You can't draw any conclusions from that. Even if they started HU with the same number of chips, you can't draw any conclusions based on one tournament experience.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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They've got you at 15-1 which is horrible. If the line drops to like 18-1 I'm gonna throw down my last $1,000 on you though [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

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Hey, it's your money.

With 64 players of this quality, nobody is a good bet unless you're getting at least 40-1, and that's being conservative. It probably would really take at least 50-1, on the best player in the field, before you had +EV on the bet.

Now, if we already had the draw laid out, it would be different. In some cases, you would look at some of the good players, and see that their first match is a very easy (relatively speaking) opponent, and their second match is quite possibly going to also be easy, and you can bet on them at a lot less than 40-1 and be getting value. Here, where the bets go in prior to the draw, no way.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Bulldog]

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Whoa Nellie! Sorry to beat a dead horse, but John Hennigan 55/1, Jerry Buss 55/1 [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

This is a HU championship right? Am I the only one who saw Lane Flack just run all over Buss's carcass HU on WPT?

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And Flack just said on Poker Royale that he sucks at heads-up. (Although I think some of those pros play a completely different style than normal when they play on that show, knowing the advertising might be worth more than the piddly prize pool.

[housenuts]

what's the best website with up to date info?

[Bulldog]

It's over! I won't spoil but if you go to CardPlayer you'll find all the details.