Anyone else hesitant with 33 in MP?

[chris_a]

Alright, now we're getting somewhere. Feel free to make changes to this, Davelin.

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I don't know what constitutes proving a "clear" call or not. But let's say you always limp UTG with 22. Let's say that there's a raise behind you 5% of the time


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This is a low estimate in a table with half solid players/ half fish. This is the case we're talking about right? (Each of the good players may have individual PFRs around 5-9 or whatever, so the combined PFR is higher than 5% for sure.) Do you disagree that this is a low estimate?

If each of the good players' PFRs are aroudn 6% (low) then, the chance of somebody raising is roughly,
1-(0.94)^2 = .2661 but this doesn't include the times that two or more players each have a raising hand (but then you'll either have to call two bets or fold which makes it worse). We'll say 26% and I think that's pretty fair.

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so you usually spend 1.05SB per every time you're dealt 22. You flop the set about 1:8 times but you don't always win when you flop the set so let's say you need 1:10 in return. So you need to make on average >10.5SB each time you hit the set.


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The times that you hit a set and lose are not appropriately accounted for by your method. These will cost you more than just saying 10:1 since you will play it strongly and at played back at hard and lose. 10:1 would be the case if you knew when you hit your set and were behind and mucked. This messes up a bit but I don't think it's too far off.

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Let's say on average 2.5 others limp plus the blinds so 4SB goes to the pot.


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This is close to what I get.

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I just don't see it hard to believe that you can find another 6.5SB's when you hit the set given it's such a hidden hand.

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So since the PFR changed slightly, your 10.5 became something like 12.6 SB. Taking away 4 SB gives us 8.6 SB. It's not hard to believe there will be times when you make 8.6 SB. There will be times when you make 16SB or more. But you won't everytime. With an increasing number of good players in the field, your profits with this will go down. With half and half good and bad is it really that clear?

So let's change it to 4 Bad players and 6 Good players? This is clearly still a profitable game. Is it still a no-brainer to limp? The chance of PFR goes down.

My only point is that questions like the original question are NOT a no-brainer.

BTW, the strategy is to check and fold when you don't hit it, right?

BTW BTW, I'm enjoying this discussion.

[davelin]

Couple of things -

1) I'm not sure how you exactly got your % of times the pot will be raised pre-flop but it seemed like you assumed that all players had an average of 6% pfr%. If half are "fish" it should be lower. Is there a way to see % of pots that are raised before the flop in PT?

2) 10:1 is supposed to represent the times you flop the set and lose since the true odds to flop the set is like 8:1. But I know you conceded that it's close.

3) There are times the hand is 3-handed with only 1 player behind you that you can pick up the pot with a flop bet.

4) There are times you get a free card to the turn.

5) If the 10.5B became a higher number, then the SBs we take away because of the pre-flop pot is higher too.

6) I checked my PT stats according to your poll and I'm a winner at 33 and 44 and a loser at 22 FWIW.

[chris_a]

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I'm not sure how you exactly got your % of times the pot will be raised pre-flop but it seemed like you assumed that all players had an average of 6% pfr%. If half are "fish" it should be lower. Is there a way to see % of pots that are raised before the flop in PT?

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No, I specifically assumed that 5 player will never raise it and that 5 players raise it 6% of the time (oh yeah I did screw up cause that makes 11 players)... ok so change it to 4 good players.

1-(0.94)^4 = 0.2193 = 22% Doesn't change the result that much anyway.


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3) There are times the hand is 3-handed with only 1 player behind you that you can pick up the pot with a flop bet.

4) There are times you get a free card to the turn.


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Woah wait a minute? You're betting the flop after a check to you? That violates the whole idea I thought. I don't disagree with the bet, but that changes everything. Let's just keep the analysis simple and say you're mucking unles you hit a set.

These make up such a small amount of equity anyway since the probability of low that you will pick up the pot 3-way and the probability of you hitting the 2-outer and it's checked through are low too. For each of these, I could think of a case that makes it unprofitable probably. For instance, you get raised or check-raised when you try to pick up the pot in your case 3). Doh!

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5) If the 10.5B became a higher number, then the SBs we take away because of the pre-flop pot is higher too.

6) I checked my PT stats according to your poll and I'm a winner at 33 and 44 and a loser at 22 FWIW.

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5) I'm not going to argue with.. it's way too hard to analyze and give a number in terms of odds.

Ok, yeah.. so the only thing that I got from your analysis is that it's close. We'll see how the poll goes.

I haven't been convinced yet that it's a no-brainer.

[Catt]

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Let's just keep the analysis simple and say you're mucking unles you hit a set.

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That may keep it simple, but it totally distorts the results.

OK, so my sample size is absolutely nothing, but in the 10 hands where I won money (posted in your poll thread), I had more full houses than trips -- it is not at all unlikely that I continued on with, say 44, after a flop of 833 (I'm not going to replay all the hands to determine if I flopped a set and the board later paired, didn't flop but the board later tripped and my PP was good, etc.).

Also, of those 10 winning hands, I won 1 with just my pocket pairs and 2 with straights. Don't discount the number of times you can win with a straight -- when you're holding 44 and the flop comes 653, you probably have odds to chase and only very rarely do Villains suspect you hit the straight when a 2 comes on the turn or river (they realize it after they've put in a lot of bets).