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#21
03-02-2005, 12:05 PM
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Re: Party 5/10, Clarkmeister Flush Theorem
Michael Davis is right. There are exceptions of course. Against a real maniac I might check and call.
The reason you make this play is that if you are going to see a showdown you are a bigger underdog when you check and call then when you bet and are called. So you lose less by betting. No offense to Clarkmeister, but I have no idea why he gets credit for this idea since it is straight out of Theory of Poker. 
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#24
03-02-2005, 12:07 PM
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Re: Party 5/10, Clarkmeister Flush Theorem
By the way, an important thing to remember when thinking about this theorem is that you actually made it to the river with a 3-flush on board. This sort of limits the range of hands that you and your opponent have. The 4-flush also makes it unlikely that your opponent will raise without a strong flush. A weak flush will fear you have some random card like the flush ten, and bluffs are fairly unlikely to work, unless ...
What I have not worked out is how play works when the in-position player knows that the out of position player will bet with any holding. What will he play back with?
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#25
03-02-2005, 12:17 PM
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Re: Party 5/10, Clarkmeister Flush Theorem
I actually don't know if lose less is the right way to describe it because any time you lose less you actually win more. It would be correct to call a river bet against most players based on the pot odds, but you are going to win more bets by betting.
Basically you should bet if your opponent will call with more hands than he would bet. This describes most players. If your opponent will bet more hands that he will call with the you should check and call. This describes maniacs and the rare players who will not value bet their decent hands but will bluff.
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#26
03-02-2005, 12:20 PM
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Re: Party 5/10, Clarkmeister Flush Theorem
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What book (if any) does this come from? [/ QUOTE ] Just read MaxPower's post about TOP...I haven't go to that section yet... [/ QUOTE ] Its in the section on Heads Up on the End, which is one of the toughest chapters to put into practice for most people.
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#27
03-02-2005, 12:23 PM
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Re: Party 5/10, Clarkmeister Flush Theorem
[ QUOTE ]
Heads Up on the End, which is one of the toughest chapters to put into practice for most people. [/ QUOTE ] That's the section I'm on right now actually, but I quit reading it for a couple days as I'm reviewing some SSHE chapters. I got a couple of pages into it and realized that it's going to take some pretty heavy focus.
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#28
03-02-2005, 12:27 PM
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Re: Party 5/10, Clarkmeister Flush Theorem
[ QUOTE ]
The reason you make this play is that if you are going to see a showdown you are a bigger underdog when you check and call then when you bet and are called [/ QUOTE ] I don't know if this is necessarily a true statement. I think that in this situation, we are a bigger dog if bet and get called than if we check and call. If we bet and call, only a better hand will. If we check one of 2 things will happen 1) He value bets his hand - I believe this bet most likely represents a smaller range of hands than the ones he will call with b/c I do not think he will bet a K, 2 pair, or a better T. 2) He bluffs - This is good for you I can't think of one hand where I bet and he calls where I'm ahead or an example where I be and he folds where I would have lost if he called. I think checking and calling is better here and if he's extremly weak tight, checking and folding might even be the way to go.
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#30
03-02-2005, 12:46 PM
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Re: Party 5/10, Clarkmeister Flush Theorem
I wasn't really addressing this particular hand in my post, just the general idea of this play.
I said you make that play if you are going to see showdown. If you are sure you are beat when he bets, by all means check and fold. And if you think he will check-behind everything but the absolute nuts, then by all means check and save a bet. At the lower limit games there are tons of these guys. In the mid-limit game the are far fewer players who would miss a value bet here.
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