Taking a shot $40/$80, hand# 2

[Fianchetto]

I open raise from MP1 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], folded around to the BB who calls.

BB is the same guy from the first hand, somewhat tight playing middle aged guy.

2 players (2.5BB)

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet, he calls

2 players (3.5BB)

Turn: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I check?? (I plan on calling a river bet or betting if checked to)

I felt like this was a situation where if he has an ace, I have outs, maybe up to 9 (any K, Q, or T). So I would have to call a checkraise, also a turn check may get me a river call by a weaker hand that would have dumped on the turn. Downside of checking is giving a free card to spade draw or gutshot.

2 players (3.5BB)

River: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets, I call

Comments? My main question here is the turn action.

Results later.

[Paluka]

I think you played it okay, but you probably lose the hand.

[DcifrThs]

ive had a lot of trouble with these kinds of hands in the past and they definately continue to plague me...

you have position on a decent playing kinda tight player who you open raise and he calls from the blinds. flop comes down wiht a draw and an overcard to your two cards. he checks and you bet b/c he'll clearly fold often enough that getting 4.5:1 on your bet is a great overlay.

then, with 3.25 bbs in the pot you hit your 2nd pair and he checks again. now, if you have him beat, and he called the flop, its likely he has tons of outs against you (likely a spde draw or a JsTs (t no good but he can't know that). so you want to bet to charge him for the draw. when you charge him and he calls and draws out (lets say 3:1 overall being generous to him and underestimating ev) and you call the river, you lose 1river bet+1turn bet=2*1/4= 0.5bbs.

then when he doesn't draw out and folds to your river bet or checks and you check behind (same ev assuming he never c'rs river) thats 3/4*1= .75bbs

so for him drawing you get 0.25bbs

now if he's ahead and you fold to a c'r you lose 1bb * some % of the time he c'rs...other times he'll have a suited ace maybe of a different suit he plans to call down so you bet and check behind on the river...both costing 1 bb some % of the time...

my problem is i can't see how expensive those other times are as compared with the .25bbs you gain with the above assumptions from betting when he's drawing

-Barron

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
now if he's ahead and you fold to a c'r you lose 1bb * some % of the time he c'rs

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with this analysis of how much it costs to be check-raised. First, if we check behind instead of betting and folding to a raise, we usually are going to then pay off a river bet, which means that we lose the same 1 BB anyway. Second, when we fold to raise, we lose the ability to suck out on the river and win the pot, but by check-raising we retain that, and your analysis misses that. Since we have a gutshot here, that part is relevant.

[William Jockusch]

Well played on all streets.

I don't know what 40/80 you are trying. Some of them are really tough (i.e. Paradise). Good luck.

[Fianchetto]

He turns over Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for a worse two pair, and MHIG.

[TheArtist]

I think you should bet the turn. His call on the flop could mean many drawing hands like KT, 2spades, JQ ect and so you don't want to give him a free card to beat you.

If u bet the turn, and he has an A, oh well u lose the same amount, because if he bet on the river, and you did't improve, it's an easy fold, or if he check you check.

Another point is he doesn't seem like the type that would check raise you on the turn with out a big hand here. So you can safely fold the turn if you get raise here, and again lose same amount.

TheArtist