What to do with a nut flush draw against obvious strength?

balt999 · #1 12-10-2002, 01:03 PM

The table is playing tight aggressive....Let's say your on LP with A [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] , and you raise an early limper....The limper and BB call....The flop comes

6 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ..

It's checked to you....you bet...both call...

The turn is a 6 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ....this time the BB comes out firing, and EP raises!....Your fairly certain one of them as a six in their hands....do you call two bets with only a flush draw?? And what are the probability of hitting your flush on the river??

Thanks in advance.

Burnt Toast · #2 12-10-2002, 02:00 PM

a flush will come about 1in5 times so you want 4:1 odds on your call. If the BB just calls you will get this. If he re-raises you will get worse. You will probably pick up a few bets on the river if you make your flush, but you could loose to a better hand. I think that unless the BB will usually only call here, you should fold. Of course if you call for this reason, but end up getting raised anyway it may end up being ok to call the second raise (due to the larger pot) even though the first raise turned out to be an error.

picabo · #3 12-10-2002, 02:30 PM

Another consideration is that one of the players slowplayed a set on the flop and the turn filled them up. You could be drawing dead. If the table is tight/aggressive as you described then what range of hands would these players hold that included a 6? Certainly 66 but would a tight player call a preflop raise with A6s,K6s or 76? I consider myself to be tight/aggressive and I dont play many 6's. Maybe if they were defending their blind. So, it appears you are getting pot odds to call the raise as you are paying 2BB to win 8BB if my calculations are correct but like toast said, if its then reraised what do you do? I would usually call here myself but its close and as far as pot odds go its a push if the first bettor just calls the raise and you are losing money if he makes it three. On a side note, the BB may be on a heart flush draw and is making a semibluff trying to represent a 6. Let us know how it turned out.

JTG51 · #4 12-10-2002, 03:27 PM

Lets do the math. There are 9 spades unaccounted for. If you know at least one of your opponents has a 6, then the 5s is no good for you. That makes 8 outs. We can take one more away for his kicker. Whether he has a spade kicker or not, it kills another spade out for you. That makes 7 outs.

So, you are about 5.5-1 to make your flush on the river. There's 7.5 BBs in the pot, and you have to call 2, giving you about 3.5-1 on your call after the rake. It looks like a fold. Also, add in the fact that one of your opponents may have 55 and you are drawing dead.

All that said, I'd probably call most of the time. [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

bernie · #5 12-10-2002, 04:35 PM

this is a tough spot to be in. player knowledge is really helpful here...

not sure if id lay it down, but i might consider it. the paired board really opens a range in these players hands....so if they were more trickier, i may be more inclined to call to the river. but as someone stated, someone limping with a small pair is very possible. the other hand would be Axs that they tripped up on.

if totally unsure, you can call, and fold if you miss. but you should keep in mind, as others stated, you could be drawing dead here...or to fewer outs than you think

b

Kurn, son of Mogh · #6 12-10-2002, 05:00 PM

You're getting 4-1 from the pot IF the BB calls, 3.75-1 if he folds and with two more potential raises behind you, much lower implied odds. Assuming your read on one hand having a 6 is correct, you only have 8 outs, not 9, so your odds of drawing a winner are 4.75-1

It's not an easy fold, but a good one.

Ed Miller · #7 12-10-2002, 05:22 PM

IMO, this is a clear fold. You aren't even getting 4-1 odds on your call and the board is paired... almost certainly killing at least the 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] and probably at least one more spade. Combine that with the chance that you are already drawing dead, and you should fold. Also, it could possibly be raised and reraised behind you.

If the board weren't paired, then this would be a call.