AJs, party 5/10

[dave44]

Do you really think MP is betting his draw here enough to make a turn raise profitable? That board and the 4 people in the pot make this seem like a bad spot to bet a draw hoping to win it there.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you really think MP is betting his draw here enough to make a turn raise profitable? That board and the 4 people in the pot make this seem like a bad spot to bet a draw hoping to win it there.


[/ QUOTE ]

Our read is that MP is a lunatic who will bet for no good reason and SB is a TAG who 3-bet a non-steal raise preflop and has now started checking. SB is scared or slowplaying, and a double slowplay is rare, so we can put him on a missed hand like AJ or an underpair. A raise will get rid of him, who is probably beating us or at least tied with us, and MP could have anything or nothing, so on balance a raise is probably okay against his hand too. Balance all this against the pot odds and a raise looks very attractive.

Guy.

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
Our read is that MP is a lunatic who will bet for no good reason and SB is a TAG who 3-bet a non-steal raise preflop and has now started checking. SB is scared or slowplaying, and a double slowplay is rare, so we can put him on a missed hand like AJ or an underpair. A raise will get rid of him, who is probably beating us or at least tied with us, and MP could have anything or nothing, so on balance a raise is probably okay against his hand too. Balance all this against the pot odds and a raise looks very attractive.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I screwed this up pretty badly.

[drudman]

I'm still not sure I buy into this completely yet... how do you intend on winning the hand, even if you raise? I assume not by winning a showdown. But do you really think you can get the entire field out by then? Or hit your ten or ace (but not of clubs)?

I'm still not convinced that this is not a "I missed and the board is scary" folding situation.

[Jdanz]

i buy this until convinced otherwise.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm still not sure I buy into this completely yet... how do you intend on winning the hand, even if you raise?


[/ QUOTE ]

The idea is that we think we can get the guy with the better hand to fold. The MP player who bet could have anything. We beat his range of hands enough of the time that if we can raise and get heads up with him, we're golden.

So yes, we're raising to knock out the preflop raiser and plan on showing down against MP.

If the preflop raiser won't fold, we don't make this raise. Likewise if MP often has a hand better than ours, we don't make this raise. But the raiser looks pretty sad about his hand, and MP is a lunatic.

Guy.