|
|
#11
12-05-2002, 02:29 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: KQs Turn Decision - results
Strange way to play the jacks tho.
It doesn't seem strange to me. With your pre-flop raise he may have put you on the "default" AK holding. The flop contains an overcard to his pair and a 2 flush - he's being cautious. The turn brings a second 2 flush (a good thing, really) and second T. Now he needs information. He may be more afraid of the cold-caller than you, figuring your "default" AK missed the flop and you're trying to buy the pot. My analysis may be all screwed-up, but his play doesn't strike me as being unusual at all. 
|
|
#12
12-05-2002, 02:35 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: KQs Turn Decision - results
Note that even if you hadn't been suited, a worse hand could call your top pair decent kicker. I hope you would have bet if checked to if that 9 hadn't been a spade.
|
|
#13
12-05-2002, 02:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: KQs Turn Decision
If he's slowplaying he's got quad Ts or Qs full and you are drawing stone dead. If he's got AA or KK or AT you have 11 outs. If he's got the more likely JJ you have no reason to raise since he has a paltry 2 outs and may very well pay you off the river if you do NOT raise now. If he's got the odd A9s (which is my guess) he's not going to fold. So vis-a-vis the SB there is very little reason to raise, and is I believe a significant losing play.
What about the caller? Do you want this player out? You want this player to fold if he's got AQ (since you are beat), but that's unlikely due to his non flop raise. He's got 3 outs QJ (doesn't hurt to let him draw cheap). If he's got AJ KJ he's got 6 outs and probably isn't going to fold to a raise. If he's got AT you don't want to raise. You gain a little with a raise vis-a-vis this player, but its not very much. The main issues here are [1] You are probably beat [2] you can't get a better hand to fold (except AQ behind you) [3] lesser hands are drawing reasonably slim against you. [4] You are much more likely to get paid off if you flat call now. - Louie All-in-all, raising does not look profitable to me.
|
|
#14
12-06-2002, 06:27 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: KQs Turn Decision
I like Louie's logic here, if you are ahead, you elicit more bets, and if you are behind, you draw as cheaply as possible.
Although, after thinking about the preflop action more, I can see how it is likely that the three bettor has exactly pocket jacks, and would probably call a raise, and a river bet. But I don't have the confidence in the read there that I would like to raise here, and rely on it. Good Luck, Play Well, Bob T.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
