pumping a draw

[jonnyv]

Judging from your table desription, you are looking at lover flushes and should not be worried about a full house. Bet it and make them pay youu off. I call a raise and even consider reraising against this field.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
What would you possibly put the other passive players on that I would be ahead of? A weaker diamond?

[/ QUOTE ]

Passive players generally won't pump a set on the flop. They tend to like to 'wake up' on the turn with them. Much less pump it when facing more aggression back at them on a monotone board on the flop. They fear monsters. If they bet this flop with a set, get raised, they are in their shell pretty much until showdown. Especially when their set is about the 20th nut. The only real value betting/raising they do is with the nuts, or near nuts.

In this case, I think someone flopped a flush. You're read that they're all passives may be off.

b

[bernie]

Flop: fine

Turn: button doesn't have a set. He likely has a smaller flush. You're in the lead here.

River: Bet it. These are passive callingstations, remember? Yes, many will call with just a diamond. Especially a small one. Especially if they have a shot at the 1 card str8flush draw. There's 3 possible cards out that could be looking for the str8flush to hit. They don't see the odds of hitting it, they just see the str8flush draw and think of how cool it'd be to hit one for once. The running pair doesn't likely make anyone a running 2 paired turn to a rivered FH.

Passives also don't c/r the river when they hit a hand. They're afraid it will get checked. You know you're beating the button. No one else bets, bet it. You may be amazed at what some idiots will call you with.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I call a raise and even consider reraising against this field.

[/ QUOTE ]

If passive callingstations c/r this river, what are you putting them on, given this board that you feel comfortable 3 betting here? These are not tricky players.

b

[young nut]

I went back and checked the stats on SB and MP1 after thinking about this hand more, and here are their stats:

SB:
VPIP: 48.21%
PF raise: 10.23%
total A: 1.1

Mp1 stats were:
VPIP: 42.37%
PF raise: 0%
total A: .51

I was pretty sure that the Button had a smaller flush that he hit on the flop, just by his betting. It was MP1 and SB that scared me being in the hand.


For note, I was very positive I had button beat, I was only worried about SB or MP1 check raising with a boat. Given these stats do you still think I should bet the river?

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call a raise and even consider reraising against this field.

[/ QUOTE ]

If passive callingstations c/r this river, what are you putting them on, given this board that you feel comfortable 3 betting here? These are not tricky players.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

He might be raised by someone to his left, not check-raised. I beleive that's what was meant. I don't see anything less than a boat raising your bet, but no way anyone here could read well enough to fold in this pot. If they can, they should go help the FBI find serial killers as a psychic or something...

Bet this river. My guess is that button has K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and someone else has Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and they'll both pay you off.

[Freakin]

[ QUOTE ]
Passives also don't c/r the river when they hit a hand. They're afraid it will get checked. You know you're beating the button. No one else bets, bet it. You may be amazed at what some idiots will call you with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats wonderful analysis.

Freakin

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
I went back and checked the stats on SB and MP1 after thinking about this hand more, and here are their stats:

SB:
VPIP: 48.21%
PF raise: 10.23%
total A: 1.1

Mp1 stats were:
VPIP: 42.37%
PF raise: 0%
total A: .51

I was pretty sure that the Button had a smaller flush that he hit on the flop, just by his betting. It was MP1 and SB that scared me being in the hand.


For note, I was very positive I had button beat, I was only worried about SB or MP1 check raising with a boat. Given these stats do you still think I should bet the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think you are seeing monsters. One of them could have a straight and is just calling "because the pot's too big to fold" (don't assume they play intelligently). If one of them had a set and outdrew you, such is life. You need to try and pick up a bet from Button, who almost certainly has a flush, at the very least.

[ErrantNight]

wow, we agree!