Kicker fear

memphis57 · #1 02-23-2005, 03:09 PM

In the stock market, they say what makes a good portfolio manager is having the right combination of fear and greed. I've been thinking the same applies to poker players, so I'm not ashamed to admit a lot of my actions are driven by fear. But, like in the stock market, you have to continually ask is the fear justified.

So, here I checked the river from fear of a bigger kicker, but I'm thinking maybe that was wrong. For some reason I read his check as setting up a check-raise rather than weakness, thinking that maybe he had just made a boat or maybe even a flush. I had been taking pots through aggression and other players had check-raised me on occasion when they had a good hand - I think showing lots of aggression might make weak-passives more inclined to the check-raise than they otherwise would be.

I was already playing the Axs earlier than I normally do - I did that because with the table full of weak passives, I was winning marginal hands with early bets and raises, and I thought if I got 2 spades or Ace-anything on the flop, I'd bet and win it right there. If it was an ace and somebody bet before me (or if I bet first and got raised), I could fold and only be out 1/2-1 BB. If I got 2 spades I would of course see the river.

Now, when playing Axs, I usually put a very low value on any pair of aces that show up, because of the kicker. If trip A's come up I feel better because that lowers the odds of an opponent having one, but I'm still cautious and thinkng about the kicker. Hopefully high board cards will come out to improve my kicker, but here the improvement was only to an 8, still pretty low.

Any comments on my line of thought, or on the hand in general? SB is a decent player with usually a weak-passive style, but he will push a good hand.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls, CO folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

zeropotential · #2 02-23-2005, 03:14 PM

Would anyone else raise this flop?

itsmesteve · #3 02-23-2005, 03:27 PM

i might wait till the turn hoping that one extra player throws in one more bet, but i'm definitely raising this at some point and betting the river, this guy probably had Xeight or low pocket pair. not betting trip aces is, forsure, weak.

Dimitzu · #4 02-23-2005, 03:33 PM

I would call the flop and raise the turn.

memphis57 · #5 02-23-2005, 03:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this guy probably had Xeight or low pocket pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't he have an ace? He's bet the max he could at every point, on a table that ususally folds to any scary flop that they don't have a piece of.

itsmesteve · #6 02-23-2005, 03:49 PM

one- if the read was in the post, i missed it. even so, he was never given a chance to fold, as the first to act he bet and faced no agression to fold to.
two- the fact that he complete from the sb makes me increase his range of hands. this makes it less likely for him to have an ace, since he has more possible hands.
three- there's only one ace left, so the odds on the river that he has it are 1 in 45.

Its not he can't have it, its that is most instances he won't.

edit- part of being able to play Axs in ep is that pairing an ace CAN win the pot. this is what gives the hand significantly more value than Kxs or 78s.

dark_horse · #7 02-23-2005, 03:50 PM

I fold AXs preflop without at least two limpers in front of me without being worried about a raise coming from LP. That said, definitely raise flop, see if he 3bets. Lots of players in EP will bet out or even raise in situations like this when they flopped the other card, especially if that card is above the paired flop cards.