|
|
#11
02-21-2005, 06:02 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Folding a draw to a K high flush on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
No discounting of outs on the turn since I don't have the Ac in my pocket? [/ QUOTE ] Maybe you should discount a little but I don't think these guys are on flush draws. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I considered raising the flop the first time around to try to clean up K outs but I'm not sure the pot is big enough. [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't I treat this hand as a flush draw and try to get as many callers on the flop as possible? [/ QUOTE ] I guess I wasn't clear but yes, that's how I play the flop the first time around here. I just was pointing out that I did -consider- raising the first time around to increase my winning chances, and decided that the pot wasn't quite big enough. 
|
|
#12
02-21-2005, 06:16 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Folding a draw to a K high flush on a paired board
Some of the advice in this thread is just terrible.
Take an objective look at the turn instead of jumping to conclusions about what people might have. The 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] isn't an out. Let's do some math with an assumed 8 outs. Because SB is all-in, let's assume that 2 BB goes in on the river if we make our flush. We will win 18 BB (17.4 - X)% of the time. X = The % we make a flush and lose. We will fold the river 82.6% of the time. 18(.174 - X) = 2(.826) + 4(X) Solving for X we find that X = .067. What does this mean? Well if we are drawing dead less then .067/.174 = ~38% of the time, we should call the turn. Clearly we aren't drawing dead more then 38% of the time here. Easy call. Brad Another way to look at it is this way. Let's assume that both villians have A LEAST a jack. In this case, we have 6 outs at best (44 unseen cards b/c we know they both have jacks). We will be drawing dead X% of the time someone should have a full house now. Should we call? 18(.136 - X) = 2(.864) + 4X X = .033 so we need to be drawing dead less then 24% of the time. Clearly, a full house isn't out there 24% of the time ON THE TURN. This call is trivial. Next case.
|
|
#13
02-21-2005, 06:18 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Folding a draw to a K high flush on a paired board
"The action on the turn isn't two people pumping a flush draw."
No shiiiiit. The second jack hits the board, you have SB betting into the raiser, the raiser raising again, and then SB 3-betting. What do you put SB on? And MP1? What does he have, he hangs in there, and puts SB all in on the river (when the fourth club hits) think he was on a third nut flush draw?
|
|
#15
02-21-2005, 04:34 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Folding a draw to a K high flush on a paired board
Nope, sorry. Been thinking some more and I don't get it. On the left side of the equation you have the number of bets you win on the river (strangely enough including the bets you put in). On the right side you have the number of bets you put in. I don't understand how you can say that these two entities are equal.
|
|
#16
02-21-2005, 04:45 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Folding a draw to a K high flush on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
Nope, sorry. Been thinking some more and I don't get it. On the left side of the equation you have the number of bets you win on the river (strangely enough including the bets you put in). On the right side you have the number of bets you put in. I don't understand how you can say that these two entities are equal. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think he counts your bets on the left side. Also, he's not -claiming- these two things are equal, he's solving for when they're equal. They're equal when you're drawing dead X percent of the time, so if you think you're drawing dead any less than that you should call.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
