KJs -- too much?

[OilMan]

KO,

I don't see how your hand has all that much potential (warranting a raise). Your gutshot draw only has 3 outs (10 of hearts puts the flush on the board) and it's possible you only get 1/2 the pot if it does hit. The best thing going is the back door nut flush draw.

I calculate that you have 4.5 outs (1 for the gut shot (discounted), 2 for the kings and 1.5 for the BD flush draw). I would call the flop bet instead of raise. Once you loose the flush draw I'm not sure you have odds to continue. The one thing I may be overlooking is the possibility that your hand is best after the flop. I just tend to think that with 6 players seeing the flop, someone has an Ace.

[Shillx]

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without the backdoor draws, your hand is very devalued.

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1) A raise might fold a better hand.
2) A raise might get someone with a ten to fold.
3) A raise might get someone wiht a jack to fold.

Who cares if someone folds T9 on a AK6 flop? Who cares if J7 folds on a AK6 flop? We would like it very much if these hands folded out.

Brad

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You might be able to get a T9 to fold on an AKQ flop at 1/2, but it weren't happening (bad grammar on purpose, for humor) to me today. But yes, that is another reason to fold when you have second best hand. You want to make it too expensive for other people to draw out on you.

KO

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I don't think you are getting the point. Let's say that the flop bettor has Ax. Now let's say that you spike a jack on the turn and outdraw the flop bettor. You will be very happy that the dude folded his T9 (he now has a straight). Simlar comments apply when you fold out the J7 guy, spike a T to make a straight and win the entire pot instead of half the pot. Increasing the chances of winning an ENTIRE POT compared 1/2 the pot is critical when the pot is big. This constitutes a big pot on the flop.

Brad

[KingOtter]

Oilman,

Usually you count outs in order to justify a call/fold call. Raising serves a different purpose altogether.

Plus in this case I have a 'made' hand. Is my 'made' hand the best? Probably not. So I need redraws. Do I have them? Certainly. Do other people have redraws if I hit mine? Yes. How do I get rid of them? Raise.

Like Shillx said, a raise can fold others who, if you make your draw, might have drawn to something better. Like if I spiked a Jack, would give the T9 hand a straight. So a raise here pushes them out, and then perhaps 2 pair K's and J's would be the better hand.

SSH gave me a LOT of hand evaluation expertise, but I'm getting a lot of the 'when to raise/call fold' advice from HEPFAP, which is really changing my game.

KO

[KingOtter]

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I don't think you are getting the point. Let's say that the flop bettor has Ax. Now let's say that you spike a jack on the turn and outdraw the flop bettor. You will be very happy that the dude folded his T9 (he now has a straight). Simlar comments apply when you fold out the J7 guy, spike a T to make a straight and win the entire pot instead of half the pot. Increasing the chances of winning an ENTIRE POT compared 1/2 the pot is critical when the pot is big. This constitutes a big pot on the flop.

Brad

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I do understand this... see my response to Oilcan. That is the main purpose of a raise in this situation.

All I'm saying is that I didn't have much luck getting those others to fold today, and with all the big cards on this flop I don't expect a Qx to fold, or a Kx to fold, or an Ax to fold.

In the AK6 case, where I pre-flopped raise I would only expect an Ax to fold if they were tight-ish player. A 'typical' player probably wouldn't. But if I only had a few people on the flop (2-3 others, or HU) I probably WOULD raise the AK6. Not only is there less chance of an Ace, but also I want to make it HU, so if I improve I win.

Right now I'm *extremely* cynical of Party players and what they will or won't do based upon what I've read they're supposed to do or what I want them to do. They're completely illogical, and I can't get variance on my side for longer than a couple days at a time.

KO

[OilMan]

I am starting to see the point a little clearer.

Thanks

[LeftBack]

KJs is easily dominated by this board. What were your outs? Can't count J's, so that leaves 2 K's and 3 T's. With 6 players, you can count on an A. Your straight value is reduced by the possibility of a split w/ another J or a flush.

When you called the flop 3-bet and followed it with a call on the turn, I think you gave up the hand. I don't know if raising the turn (and folding to a 3-bet) would have been better, but it fits your strategy a little closer.

I don't like the calldown with middle pair on a highly coordinated and dangerous board.

[Hojglad]

With regards to the river - do you REALLY think you are good 1 in 15 times here? I don't. I fold.

[KingOtter]

1 in 15? Absolutely. There's a 13% chance there is no ace on the board, pre-flop. That's 1 in 8.

So if the pot at the river was 7BB, yeah, I should fold.

KO

[martinimagic]

I am in the same boat with aggression.. running around 1.5 overall. Some of the more experienced people here told me to start bringing it to the opposition and my hands are showing big improvements with my aggression climbing.

As far as frustration with knocking people out of hands I can feel your pain. Best advice I got was to keep these people on my playing list since in the long run the A puts them in a trance to the river... making you more money.

As for the hand.. definitely fold on the river. Which leads me to a question. I can't remember which book, but you are told not to fold in a big pot. Is this pot big enough? Is this one of those personal preference situations?

[Delphin]

Like the flop raise. I would have folded the turn. With the backdoor flush possiblity gone, I don't see the odds for a call. With 6 players to the flop, you can be 99% sure there's an Ace out there. Your opponents are probably holding at least one of your straight outs, and even if you hit the straight you may well split.