smart or crazy?

William Jockusch · #1 02-19-2005, 11:39 PM

I'm not really sure what my table image was at the time.

30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $30.
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero raises . . .

goofball · #2 02-20-2005, 12:14 AM

depends. but lately in that game i've just foudn this to be chip spewing. why do want to make this raise?

Paluka · #3 02-20-2005, 12:17 AM

I think this is pretty crazy. He bet into a pretty large field, and the only way he is folding to a turn bet is if he has 33,55,66 or 77 and even then he might not fold. If he has a heart draw you are going to have to bluff the river too, which makes this pretty expensive.

goofball · #4 02-20-2005, 12:25 AM

maybe i'm too aggressive, but i don't fold 33 in that spot.

William Jockusch · #5 02-20-2005, 01:41 AM

Right or wrong, my reasoning was:

(1) There are only two people left between me and the raiser, and they both checked. So I think my raise will get it heads up.

(2) The pot is gynormous. I don't need much of a chance of winning the heads up pot to make my play worthwhile.

(3) There are three different pairs of cards that will backdoor me a straight. I will make a straight about 4% of the time.

(4) I was in the big blind. So from the viewpoint of the other players, it is plausible that this flop may have hit me.

(5) There is a reasonable chance he's on a draw. If so, I can probably win if I catch a pair. If I don't, I will try to bluff him out.

My plan was to checkfold the turn if a flush card came that didn't help me. On a non-flush card, I was going to lead the turn (folding to a raise if it didn't help me), and try to bluff him out on the end if I didn't catch anything.

amulet · #6 02-20-2005, 02:59 AM

first, i think the preflop call is incorrect, and had a large neg ev. as for the postflop play, it is interesting and has some merit. however, i think it will often cost you $, and folding is a better play.

Kaz The Original · #7 02-20-2005, 06:28 AM

*yawn*
fps

Ian J · #8 02-20-2005, 05:51 PM

Amulet,

Calling getting 14:1 closing the action with an offsuit middling one gapper is nowhere near incorrect. You really should broaden your outlook on the game.

As for the play William, I think this is most definitely spewing seeing as the pot is already big and people will be looking to show something down more often than not.

adios · #9 02-20-2005, 06:40 PM

Spiking a 9 might win it for you as well and perhaps even a 7. Risky play and I would think you'd have to be almost certain of getting it heads up. Noway that's a terrible call pre-flop.

AlwaysWrong · #10 02-21-2005, 12:12 AM

Agreed. Easy preflop call.

I'm worried that the MP player bet out when there were still two people behind him. That makes the chances of him being on a pure bluff pretty low. Your best scenario is that he's on a draw, but in that case he probably has 12-15 'outs' against you. If you *knew* he was on a draw and not a medium pair it would still obviously be a good play, but you don't know that. Overall it's a fairly expensive and risky play as you're going to have to commit a lot of chips to the pot.

You also have to be somewhat concerned that one of the other players was planning on checkraising legitimately. Not a huge concern, but it's there.