Flush Draw (ALL-in)

Mobed · #1 02-19-2005, 04:02 AM

MP and BB have had a good bit of words in the Chat box. They are both betting over aggressively at each other. I knew BB would call the all-in. With that in mind was it a good call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Hero ($56.91)
SB ($70.2)
BB ($112.41)
UTG ($48.79)
MP ($110.96)
CO ($35.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3, UTG calls $3, MP calls $3, CO calls $3.

Flop: ($20.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $10, CO folds, Hero calls $10, BB raises to $35, UTG folds, MP calls $96.96 (All-In), Hero calls $42.91 (All-In), BB calls $71.96.

Turn: ($287.33) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($287.33) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $287.33

Results in white below: 
BB has 7h 6h (two pair, jacks and sevens).
MP has Qh Js (three of a kind, jacks).
Hero has Qc Ac (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins $179.23. MP wins $108.10.

xorbie · #2 02-19-2005, 05:14 AM

Good call on the flop, followed by another good call on the flop. I see nothing wrong with this, as you are getting easy pot odds on the first call and even easier on the second.

MyMindIsGoing · #3 02-19-2005, 05:37 AM

I do not like this play. When it gets raised and then reraised all in its time to get out. Often that means set. If someone has set you only win about 25% of the time. When MP pushes $96 you must think right, you can only win $43 of them, since you only have $43 left. Looking at just how big the pot is there and comparing to your own stack is not the right way for potodds. I would rather wait to for a better time to get my money in.

xorbie · #4 02-19-2005, 05:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at just how big the pot is there and comparing to your own stack is not the right way for potodds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... yes it is.

MyMindIsGoing · #5 02-19-2005, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking at just how big the pot is there and comparing to your own stack is not the right way for potodds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... yes it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero can only win $42.91 of the all in bet. Just beacuse the poker client says "pot = $xxx" doesnt mean you can win all of it. So you must decrease the pot with the amount you cant win and the calculate. When that is done then you can figure out the odds. And since one person pushed the first raiser often goes out. So we cant assume he will call either. I would rather fold waiting for a better oppertunity.

bugstud · #6 02-19-2005, 05:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking at just how big the pot is there and comparing to your own stack is not the right way for potodds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... yes it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero can only win $42.91 of the all in bet. Just beacuse the poker client says "pot = $xxx" doesnt mean you can win all of it. So you must decrease the pot with the amount you cant win and the calculate. When that is done then you can figure out the odds. And since one person pushed the first raiser often goes out. So we cant assume he will call either. I would rather fold waiting for a better oppertunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

you do realize that means he's getting BETTER odds, right?

xorbie · #7 02-19-2005, 06:01 AM

Right. He's not calling the entire $99, he's calling ~$40, which is much smaller compared to the size of the pot.

MyMindIsGoing · #8 02-19-2005, 06:12 AM

Some scenarios:

1. MP has set and BB will fold:
There is $118.41 in the pot (that YOU can win). You need to call $42.91. You get (approx) $43/(43+118) pot odds. That means you must win 27% of the time to show profit. Set against flushdraw: you will only win 25%. Bad move.

2. MP has bottom two pair and BB will fold:
There is $118.41 in the pot (that YOU can win). You need to call $42.91. You get (approx) $43/(43+118) pot odds. That means you must win 27% of the time to show profit. Bottom two pair against flushdraw: you will win 35%. Shows profit but creates alot of variance.

3. MP or BB has set and both will call (assume BB has 76 and MP jj):
There is $118.41 in the pot (that YOU can win) and BB will call also. You need to call $42.91. You get (approx) $43/(43+118+43) pot odds. That means you must win 21% of the time to show profit. Set against two pair and set: you will win 28%. Shows profit but creates alot of variance.

Just my cup of tea. I hope I got everything right, just woke up [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] If I were in this situation I would assume we have situation nr 1 and fold. I rather wait for a higher EV situation. Situation 2 and 3 are EV+ but high variance. I do not like those.

Chris Dow · #9 02-19-2005, 10:19 AM

Previous post says it all, just a variance argument really. If your stack is larger fold becomes clearer but with your current stack the call is going to average into a winner vs their most likely holdings.