77 Eighthanded, overpair to the flop!

[mmbt0ne]

Ok, that makes sense. The 8SB already in the pot has to have some bearing on a decision though, right? Having those extra 4BB already in the pot has to make up for some of the times when you raise and miss.

I'm have no idea if this is the right play either, just trying to understand the theory behind making it.

[Entity]

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The 8SB already in the pot has to have some bearing on a decision though, right?

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Absolutely not.

Think of it this way: if there was $100 in the pot, would the $100 have any bearing on whether or not you should raise 7 limpers with 72o? No. The only thing that has bearing on whether or not you should raise is what value you will get from your raise (on future callers), and how your raise can change how the rest of the hand will be played out.

[Redeye]

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The problem is, you aren't getting 16:1 on your raise. You're getting 7:1. For each bet you put into the pot, 7 more will go in. The real question is whether or not 7:1 is sufficient enough to raise with 77 here, and whether or not the advantages of raising outweigh the disadvantages. It really doesn't seem like it matters much, so I'd like to hear any significant arguments that go one way or another.

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This is pretty much what I was thinking. This raise cannot be for set value alone since we're putting in money at 7:1 when we'll hit our set at 7.5:1. Also, as you say, we aren't winning when hitting our set 100% of the time, meaning you'd need an even larger overlay to raise for set value alone. Now, it could be possible that we have a pot equity greater than our 12.5% fair share and in that case the raise might show a slight profit. Other benefits I can see are deception and tying players to the pot, but I don't think thats an important factor in these games since these clown will pay off no matter what. I guess it would come down to our pot equity, I'd like to see some simulations of 77 against 7 random hands.

I guess the one other issue is that we have a weak made hand preflop and it would be nice to win unimproved with this hand every now and then, the preflop raise is going to make that a little more difficult by making it harder to protect our hand.

[chief444]

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the main one I know of is raising to tie other people onto a larger pot if/when you hit your set, but I'm not sure that in a game where there are this many bad limpers if that's really necessary.

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That would be about the only one I can think of as well. In any game where you have 8 out of 9 players see the flop, I doubt if deception really matters and I also doubt if, as you said, they're too concerned about pot odds. Besides that, the raise also ties people to the pot on a 5-6-2 flop. So even though I'm sure it's close to neutral EV just considering how often you'll win, I doubt if I would raise it here.

But whatever. Postflop looks fine to me.

[mmbt0ne]

Alright, obviously I'm off base here, so let me start over and try to explain this out.

The pot size is pointless. Even if it was $850, it has no bearing on the RAISE equity on hero's hand. All that matter is if he thinks the 7:1 he's getting on his raise will be worth it. So, to allow for a raise here, hero has to be good about 15% of the time. He is a little worse than that to hit his set, but with the fact that he disguised his hand (which might make people fold marginal but better hands on the flop) coupled with his implied odds if he does hit his set, a case can be made for raising.

I don't know why, but I really felt initially like the dead money in the pot should make a difference here. I know that I wouldn't think this on postflop play so I should really re-evaluate how I'm thinking about the blinds preflop obviously.

I hope I'm getting this right. It would suck to still be completely wrong on a 1500th post.

[PantherZ]

What hand is he calling with that you beat over 55% of the time? King high? 44?

[Entity]

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What hand is he calling with that you beat over 55% of the time? King high? 44?

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A pair of 6's.

[rmarotti]

Perfect

[PokerBob]

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I'm big blind with 77. Table has got several loose players, from what I've seen, they tend to be decently aggressive preflop (at least they like to 3bet) and then go passive. SB was definately one of the loose players. He seemed to be a bit tricky at times though.

What do you think about raising preflop, and on the flop, and should I valuebet the river?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, CO folds, SB calls.

River: (13 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

Results posted later

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With that many opponents, I think the pf raise is OK, but I'm not sure if I'd do it (99 gets raised). You are likely ahead of everyone, but not by much. I like how you played the flop and turn.

I'm not sure about the river. I think any 6 calls, but I'm not sure if anything else you beat does. That A on the river sucks. What if you get c/r'ed?

[PokerBob]

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the main one I know of is raising to tie other people onto a larger pot if/when you hit your set, but I'm not sure that in a game where there are this many bad limpers if that's really necessary.

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That would be about the only one I can think of as well. In any game where you have 8 out of 9 players see the flop, I doubt if deception really matters and I also doubt if, as you said, they're too concerned about pot odds. Besides that, the raise also ties people to the pot on a 5-6-2 flop. So even though I'm sure it's close to neutral EV just considering how often you'll win, I doubt if I would raise it here.

But whatever. Postflop looks fine to me.

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I gotta believe the raise is +Ev somewhat, as a) you are likey ahead of most, and WAY ahead of hands like AXo, and Kxs and b) you have set value. But like I stated earlier, I still don't think I raise here unless I have 99 or better. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] What is my problem?