$15/$30 Party. CR flop - good move? - Page 3

34TheTruth34 · #21 02-18-2005, 01:31 AM

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i respect your opinion, it is ok to disagree

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I dont think it's ok to disagree on this. Folding here is, in terms of long-run EV, CLEARLY WRONG. I mean, do you really think you can't make up the 15 measley bucks it costs you to call here? Getting 9.5:1? I think that if you want to fold here it shows that you have a clear lack of understanding of some basic poker fundamentals.

Not trying to get personal here, just trying to give you something to think about. Maybe somebody could run a TTH simulation to help...

Emperor · #22 02-18-2005, 03:05 AM

I fold AA here as well. With all the people in this hand you are going to need a set minimum to win.

Since your not getting odds to flop a set (we can't count implied odds cuz everyone might fold on the flop.) A fold is correct.

Satire Off.

innebandy · #23 02-18-2005, 03:30 AM

I am struggling with the post-flop aggression level at $15/$30, but pre-flop I'm not as tight-passive as your guess: VP$IP = 17.5, PFR = 9.0, WtSD = 30. From what I've read here the first two numbers shouldn't be out of line, but based on your comment I'm guessing the WtSD is low?

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Just out of curiousity, would you mind posting your PT stats? I don't care about your BB/100, just curious about the other stuff.

But let me take a guess: VP$IP = 11.5, PFR = 6.5, WtSD = 28. How close am I?

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innebandy · #24 02-18-2005, 03:34 AM

Yeah, I didn't feel good about the flop, especially since I din't have the pre-flop raiser either on my immediate left or right, and checked it to see how the hand would develop. When the pre-flop raiser checked and I only a bet and a call on my right I thought I'd take a stab at it and try to limit the field.

Obviously, I wasn't sure if it was a good idea - hence the post. I haven't caught up on the whole thread yet, but it seems like the consensus so far is that this is not the preferred line.

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Protecting? I think not. If it was the cutoff who raised preflop, I would like the line. You could hope it got checked to him, he would bet, you could raise, and face the field with 2 bets. The way it is, you aren't changing much except possibly getting rid of UTG+2's big cards.

To be honest, though. I dont like this situation/board either. There aren't a whole lot of turn cards I like. I probably just try to quickly and cheaply get to showdown.

-Todd

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innebandy · #25 02-18-2005, 03:38 AM

Never mind - I just noticed the question wasn't directed to me.

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I am struggling with the post-flop aggression level at $15/$30, but pre-flop I'm not as tight-passive as your guess: VP$IP = 17.5, PFR = 9.0, WtSD = 30. From what I've read here the first two numbers shouldn't be out of line, but based on your comment I'm guessing the WtSD is low?

[ QUOTE ]
Just out of curiousity, would you mind posting your PT stats? I don't care about your BB/100, just curious about the other stuff.

But let me take a guess: VP$IP = 11.5, PFR = 6.5, WtSD = 28. How close am I?

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innebandy · #26 02-18-2005, 03:46 AM

I'm not sure who you are referring to there, but I'm obviously not expecting all of them to fold on the flop. The hand was five-handed to the flop - once my check was followed by check-check-bet-call, I figured there was a decent chance I was ahead (since it wasn't the pre-flop raiser who bet), and if not I had some outs. And if I was ahead, a raise would hopefully cut down the field to three and improve my chances of not being drawn out on.

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When do you expect him to fold? Right there on the flop?

There are obvious draws that one might wish to play strongly on the flop. He'll probably expect you to see the whole board but believe that it's likely that you'll need to improve to win.

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innebandy · #27 02-18-2005, 03:52 AM

The pre-flop call was almost a no-brainer for me. It's only a so-so hand, but to get into a raised five-handed pot for one bet seems like a bargain. And with most flops it's a relatively easy hand to play - you'll either have a clear fold or a decent draw. This happened to be a flop that wasn't either of those.

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i respect your opinion, it is ok to disagree

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I dont think it's ok to disagree on this. Folding here is, in terms of long-run EV, CLEARLY WRONG. I mean, do you really think you can't make up the 15 measley bucks it costs you to call here? Getting 9.5:1? I think that if you want to fold here it shows that you have a clear lack of understanding of some basic poker fundamentals.

Not trying to get personal here, just trying to give you something to think about. Maybe somebody could run a TTH simulation to help...

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JasonP530 · #28 02-18-2005, 04:08 AM

Can someone evaluate my thoughts on this hand? Just looking for some feedback.

I would not bet the flop, as I would not expect the PFR to raise me with just overcards, and I would hate to be calling all the way when I know it is probable he raised me on the flop with an overpair.

I would check and hope the bet comes from one of the later position betters(who among other things, could be betting light, 55, A7 and such would all be bet), then I could raise and try to isolate out the others who have overcards. If the PFR bet, I would evaluate based on what the other players did(in general, probably 3 bet if it were raised, and the PFR would bet overcards).

I like the way you played it on a draw heavy board, as you are unlikely to get raised at any point unless a draw gets there and someone has it. If so, you will be able to fold with a clear conscience.

Thanks for the replies.

amulet · #29 02-18-2005, 11:52 AM

when i said it was ok to disagree, i was refering to the lack of personal attacks and the nicely worded way he said he thought i was incorrect. it had nothing to do with incorrect or correct.

as for incorrect or correct, as i said to another posters question in this thread, if a bunch of people have limped and i have Q9s on the button, i of course call. here i think this call has neg ev, but clearly i am the only one. does that me i am incorrect? no, it does not. i intend to run it by a few of the top pros this afternoon at the main event of the LA calassic. it would be interesting to have a few of the pros who post here respond.

Wayfare · #30 02-18-2005, 11:58 AM

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when i said it was ok to disagree, i was refering to the lack of personal attacks and the nicely worded way he said he thought i was incorrect. it had nothing to do with incorrect or correct.

as for incorrect or correct, as i said to another posters question in this thread, if a bunch of people have limped and i have Q9s on the button, i of course call. here i think this call has neg ev, but clearly i am the only one. does that me i am incorrect? no, it does not. i intend to run it by a few of the top pros this afternoon at the main event of the LA calassic. it would be interesting to have a few of the pros who post here respond.

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Does anyone find it entirely possible that it would be -EV for amulet to call here b/c of postflop ability but +EV for others? That seems to be the theme in almost every one of his posts.