shoot for 1st ? - Page 2

The Yugoslavian · #11 02-17-2005, 05:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
...I don’t get it. Maybe I will tomorrow...or after my right eye stops shivering from all the energy drinks I have consumed

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

PS: I forgot I even had an english paper. I cant feel my feet any more.

PS to the 2nd power: I get it now...stupid me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh boy. Yeah, I doubt you could go to sleep considering how hopped up you are.

Yugoslav
(remember not to play any $215s tonight no matter how much feeling you lose)
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ZebraAss · #12 02-17-2005, 05:02 AM

Yea i saw that...i edited my post after seeing that you did too.

ZebraAss · #13 02-17-2005, 05:03 AM

HAHA....no more poker past 11:00 for me. I blew 500 a few days ago at 50/5's. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Gramps · #14 02-17-2005, 06:11 AM

I think it's close, and it sucks to have to be the first one to make a stand with a crap offsuit Ace (even if SB is pushing any two). You can force the button to be all-in first, but you'll be down to 200 (if blinds don't go up right away) by then if he's a b-tch about it and plays "not to lose at all costs."

But...the fact that you're a favortie for 2nd if you call and win (and your equity in the 20% jump from 2nd to 1st goes up a fair amount), the fact that you're probalby against a random hand and close to 60% to win, the fact that folding doesn't by any means guarantee you third (and even if you fold your way into 3rd, you may kill any shot at 2nd and reduce your equity in 1st place to slightly more than zero)...I'd go ahead and call it.

If SB hasn't been utilizing his big stack edge to the max by pushing almost every hand, that might tip it to a fold.

JaysonWeberFCP · #15 02-17-2005, 07:14 AM

I use the strategy of beginning by "shooting" for the money, real smart huh? Just playing tight, once it gets to 4 people if you're short on chips my theory is the variance between 3rd and not placing is 2x the buy-in, but to make a shot at first you win 5x buy-in (10 person SnGo). If you think, from 4th place you can make first 5-6 times out of 10 its well worth busting out of the money, and occasionally you're still going to place due to someone else going out with a larger stack.

ZebraAss · #16 02-17-2005, 07:18 AM

Dang it!!! i spent like 20 minutes making this post and i deleted it on accident.

two_dogs · #17 02-17-2005, 10:33 AM

I don't play at the $215 level and it probably will be a looooong time before I do.Just wanted to reply to check my calcs.It looks to me like this is a fold.A7o is 58% against a random hand leaving your equity at .18 for a fold and .17 foe a call. So blast away ICM guys.

rachelwxm · #18 02-17-2005, 12:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't play at the $215 level and it probably will be a looooong time before I do.Just wanted to reply to check my calcs.It looks to me like this is a fold.A7o is 58% against a random hand leaving your equity at .18 for a fold and .17 foe a call. So blast away ICM guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes it's a fold by ICM. ICM suggests only call with ATo+ although it’s tough decision on the run.

This is another manifest of deviation of chipEV vs EV.

two_dogs · #19 02-17-2005, 01:01 PM

I agree it is very tough on the run and something I didn't think about is that at the $215 level you are seeing the same opponents alot more often than at the lower levels and a call here might stop these particular opponents from pushing a random hand into you in the future.

stupidsucker · #20 02-17-2005, 03:14 PM

I stand by my choice to fold here. I think its basically even money either way.

Next hand UTG will be short stack. He will probably push with any A,K,Q or pair. He may even push with anything, but he has no FE. BB will be the mid stack and he will be calling the push for sure if there is a push. If the both the big&small stack stay out of the hand you are in great position to steal from the mid stack.

if the ICM says fold then I think it only backs my argument, because we all know that blinds are not a factor in ICM, and the blinds are in your favor for getting ITM over the small stack.

Now you have a 58% chance to double up, but no matter what your chances of a double up are close to 50% at any given time. Plus the fact that the shorty might just lose next hand.

If I am the short stack here, I want you to call. If I am the midstack, I want you to call. If I am the big stack, I really dont care what you do, but would prefer a fold. That is enough for me right there.