Will the supply of fish eventually run dry?

[TStoneMBD]

there may be more fish now then there ever has been in the past, but that is become the game has recently exploded and therefore there are more novices than experts in the game. what happens if the explosion of poker levels off? there will likely come a point in time in which the fish convert to expertise at a faster rate than the new fish enter the game.

i think it comes down to what your prediction is on the future of poker. if you think that the game will continue to explode, and that in the year 2006 there will be 10,000 contestants in the WSOP, and in the year 2007 there will be 15,000, then the population of fish will magnify.

[Dave Mac]

I totally disagree, i think that the very high limit good games may disappear, i don't think there will be good 30-60 and 100-200 games forever. But i think that the games up to 15-30 on party will stay at least semi good for a while. I think a lot fo the higher limit b+m fish rich people etc will continute to donate. If they don't mind losing 4K playing 40-80 it won't phase them to lose a few hundreed playing 15-30. Morevoer i see some of the same horrible people day in and day out, and they still suck.
Dave

[Pepsquad]

Many of you are SERIOUSLY underestimating the power of compulsive behavior/addiction and the promise of riches.

Pep.

[olavfo]

I believe the fish-supply will be steady. I am new to poker, but I have a lot of experience in sports betting, so let me throw you some numbers from that area:

In sports betting around 95% of all bettors lose. 3-4% are skilled enough to beat the book, but mostly break even, since they lack discipline and take to many bets. Around 1% win consistently. Yep, that's 1% as in 1 out of 100.

Does this stop people from trying? No. And what is even better: People who have been losing for years and years still bet. They do it because they like it. They are more interested in the fun and the thrill than actually winning. When they are on a good streak they boast to their friends, when they are on a bad streak they say nothing.

I would be very surprised if the same didn't apply to poker. For you and me it's a matter of concern when we play badly and lose. For other's it does not matter all that much. Their losses is the price they pay for the fun of playing.

People will always gamble. I can't imagine that there's ever going to be a lack of suckers willing to donate money to the higher levels of the food-chain. Not to mention the addicts who will gamble no matter what their chances.

olavfo

[Viscant]

This sounds far too much like what people said regarding the stock market a few years ago. There's a practically infinite supply of fish is simply foolish. Yes the games are better than they were 5 years ago but that's because poker is a fad right now. In 5 more years, if you think the games will continue getting better, I just don't see how you could possibly support that.
The only thing that could possibly justify this is more new money coming in that isn't already in. So leaving out the people in caves who somehow missed out on the deluge of poker coverage, you're banking on kids. Which is simply foolish for two reasons. One, all kids who want to play poker are already playing right now. The 15 year olds playing with daddy's credit card are a major reason why the low/micro limits are money factories right now. And two, the next wave is always first defined by not being this wave. Come on, like number crunching poker players are going to be cool in high schools for very much longer.

B&M poker will live forever and the games will get easier, this is undeniable. People aren't really sure how much they're winning or losing because of where the money comes from, the bright lights and slutty waitresses are always there to convince you that you had fun and that you got something for the money and in a couple weeks you'll forget that you lost any money; a couple weeks after that you'll be pretty sure you broke even and a month later you're pretty sure you're overall a small winner.
Online losers simply can't escape the fact that they're losers. The money deposited into Party didn't buy them anything but frustration and disappointment. No chance to look down anyone's shiny blouse, no bright lights. These people will leave and will be replaced only by people who are smarter or richer.

Now, the 3/6 and 5/10 games on Party etc will be profitable for years and years I'm sure. It's not like the sky is going to fall next year. Lots of people will lose small amounts and a few people will win decent amounts and this will continue. But the pros playing the 15/30 and 30/60 games are surely in for a rude awakening in a little bit. Either they have to improve dramatically, or they'll start slipping bit by bit. It's simply evolution.

[motorholdem]

[ QUOTE ]
Many of you are SERIOUSLY underestimating the power of compulsive behavior/addiction and the promise of riches.

Pep.

[/ QUOTE ]

Insightful point. Could I add that newer players SERIOUSLY underestimate the talent gap between themselves and seasoned players.

Especially, in Holdem, where TV coverage can easily portray the best palyers in the world as lucky, reckless (or both) to the new player who doesn't have the knowledge or insight to know the subtle differnces between recklessness and controlled aggressive. To many new players, they look one in the same .

Look at this way. When you are weak chess player up against a better opponent, you find out real quick that you are outmatched. After two games you'd say to your opponent "play you for money - are you kidding me?"

However,if you are weak Holdem player up against a better players, (with the varaibaility of cards, bets, other players at the table,bad beats, good beats, hit draws, missed draws, etc,) you may never fully appreciate that "MonkeyChump15" at Empire has your number inside out...You may just see him as someone who gets better hands than you. Thing is, MonkeyChump15 knows he has you!!!!

In short, Holdem creates such a complex environment that it enables otherwise bright people to suck without even knowing it. Most times it's not even ego; it's just ignornance. You don't that in other sports or games too often.

I think that's why there will always be fish. Because most fish don't think they are fish to begin with.

[Dave Mac]

I have to disagree at least in part. I think that the mid limit games will get harder, but i think there are a fair amount of players who simply don't mind losing money/ suck run good move up lose, and then rinse and repeat. ALso a lot of laggy horrible mid limit players have huge scores from time to time. I can only assume that there are a fair number of huge losers who have had 10K weekends etc. This memery/hope keeps many players playing for a long time. Maybe this is wishful thinking but i think the games will be good, maybe not this good but beatable, for a while longer. But hopefully they will be real good for a long time.
dave

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
This sounds far too much like what people said regarding the stock market a few years ago. There's a practically infinite supply of fish is simply foolish. Yes the games are better than they were 5 years ago but that's because poker is a fad right now. In 5 more years, if you think the games will continue getting better, I just don't see how you could possibly support that.
The only thing that could possibly justify this is more new money coming in that isn't already in. So leaving out the people in caves who somehow missed out on the deluge of poker coverage, you're banking on kids. Which is simply foolish for two reasons. One, all kids who want to play poker are already playing right now. The 15 year olds playing with daddy's credit card are a major reason why the low/micro limits are money factories right now. And two, the next wave is always first defined by not being this wave. Come on, like number crunching poker players are going to be cool in high schools for very much longer.

B&M poker will live forever and the games will get easier, this is undeniable. People aren't really sure how much they're winning or losing because of where the money comes from, the bright lights and slutty waitresses are always there to convince you that you had fun and that you got something for the money and in a couple weeks you'll forget that you lost any money; a couple weeks after that you'll be pretty sure you broke even and a month later you're pretty sure you're overall a small winner.
Online losers simply can't escape the fact that they're losers. The money deposited into Party didn't buy them anything but frustration and disappointment. No chance to look down anyone's shiny blouse, no bright lights. These people will leave and will be replaced only by people who are smarter or richer.

Now, the 3/6 and 5/10 games on Party etc will be profitable for years and years I'm sure. It's not like the sky is going to fall next year. Lots of people will lose small amounts and a few people will win decent amounts and this will continue. But the pros playing the 15/30 and 30/60 games are surely in for a rude awakening in a little bit. Either they have to improve dramatically, or they'll start slipping bit by bit. It's simply evolution.

[/ QUOTE ]

Viscant, with all due respect, I tire of posts like this in regard to the "Will the well ever dry up?" question. Your line of thought is just flawed beyond all reasoning.

[AngryCola]

Weren't all the fish supposed to die out twenty years ago?

What happened?

[AngryCola]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think there will be good 30-60 and 100-200 games forever

[/ QUOTE ]

There are games played at higher limits with some of the best players in the world that can still be profitable.