LA Poker Classic $1500 NL - JJ Disaster getting down to the wire

[Jibbs]

I think I would probably flat call here and consider getting away from it if there is a raise or push from a stack behind. I'm sure this seems weak/tight but I wake up with cold-sweats from nightmares about JJ. I've had the same trouble as you apparently are with them lately.

[Jason Strasser]

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Well, I would never fold JJ to a single standard raise, even from UTG, unless I knew the player really well and they are a total rock.

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This sounds pretty good. I can't see myself folding this either. I vote for call and take a flop with position. Stacks are way too shallow IMO to get away from this, unless the opponent was really uncreative and rockish.

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If I were going to raise, my standard reraise would be 6K, but that is 1/3 of my stack, so reraising all-in instead is definitely an option. If you do raise to 6K, do NOT fold to the all-in by UTG. He could still easily have AK, and you can't afford to fold there getting a bit over 2:1 on the call where you could easily be a favorite. It is going to take a great read before you can fold to that re-reraise.

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Doesn't this mean you are just better off going all-in if you choose to raise? I hate a situation like this when you are against a very good/tricky UTG raiser. If you raise to 6k, you are a lot more pot committed than you would be if you had just flat called, if your opponent chooses to call the raise. In this spot, often I feel like the UTG will have the advantage postflop. The opponent can probably put you on a range of hands like AA-JJ, because most situations in an NL tournament would support moving all in before the flop with AK or AQ because a lot of the value of those hands come with seeing all 5 cards.

So if the flop comes Axx or Kxx, a tricky UTG player may push you off the best hand, unless you have a gangsta call inside you.

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Summary. Without being there, I'm not 100% sure which choice I make, but folding is definitely NOT my pick. That's the road to ruin, the weak-tight play that means you're certain to be blinded out of this event without ever making a serious push for the prize. Even though in this case, as it turns out, folding was the best choice against this person's hand, in the long run it would be a terrible mistake.

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I agree. Dont be results oriented. Crappy players and posters are ones who respond with crap like "JJ and AK are such bad hands because I always go bust... yadda yadda yadda". Assuming your UTG was not some tight ass rock, your all in with JJ is fine. Chalk it up to short stacks, its what I do when I bust in a spot like this. You just are not there with 100+bb stacks so you cant really pick and choose your spots that much.

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Just think about the players who have done great in tourneys lately. Do you think Daniel or Gus or me or Men are going to lay down here to 1 raise with JJ?

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This argument is kinda lame, but whatever, your greg raymer and I'm jason strasser. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

-Jason

p.s. Greg I shortly followed you out in that 1k sng. You had the privelege of getting horrible beated, and I just got crushed.

[Scooterdoo]

Thanks for the reply. My thinking at the time was very similar to what you're saying in the post and I chose push since it seemed like the better option since it would get some hands to fold that would beat me later on like QQ or AK or a smaller pair that caught a set, but I would lose either way to AA or KK if rags flopped.

The point I made in this thread that I probably would have been better folding was not made because I'm a weak-tight player, to the contrary if I have a problem I'm actually too aggressive. My thinking was that I risk here all of my chips (there was only one stack bigger than me at the table and the guy who knocked me out was about even) going against one of the few opponents at the time who could knock me out for only 3.5k when given the blind sizes I could often take the blinds/antes with a lot less risk as I had been doing -- going over the top of weak limpers or making positional raises with mediocre hands. Of course I could also catch a monster (pre or post flop) and really get things going. So in summary, the risk of pushing/raising just doesn't appear to be worth it. Calling would be okay, and regardless of what I say I doubt it if I would ever fold JJ to a standard raise <g>, although it does seem like a pretty good option when I think things through.

[revots33]

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Just think about the players who have done great in tourneys lately. Do you think Daniel or Gus or me or Men are going to lay down here to 1 raise with JJ?

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That's what I was thinking. I know pros are able to make good laydowns that suckers like myself aren't... but I can't see a top player folding JJ to 1 standard raise in this spot.

I wouldn't push, though, with 8 players behind me yet to act. I'd call and see what kind of action there is behind me, and what kind of flop I get. 2K doesn't make me pot-committed and I can still get away from it if things take an unfavorable turn.

My feeling is that I am risking 1/9th of my stack. If no one reraises, and a J hits on the flop I'm probably doubling up. If I have an overpair and UTG checks or makes a weak bet I'd probably push and hope for the best at that point.

If my goal is to make the final table and not just slide into the money, it seems like a chance worth taking. But I play 40 dollar tournaments so what do I know?

[Brad F.]

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Preflop, I think it's a fold. Against an unknown player, you're behind too often and not enough of a favourite often enough to push all-in, and unless you flop a set or an ace or king comes, it's going to be very hard to know where you are postflop if you call. A reraise would eat up too many of your chips, and you're likely to just get rereraised all-in by someone out of position, putting you in the same spot as pushing would.


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Good advice here. I'm just thinking these three things:

1. I don't know this player, but it's late in the tourney, he's obviously played at the minimum decent poker to get here, and therefore I put him on AQ-AK or MAYBE 10's, but more likely JJ, QQ, KK, AA. Gotta respect that first position raise.
2. Against those hands, you can get a coinflip in which you are a slight favorite, but the times that your are dominated outweighs the times that you are coinflipping.
3. The number of folks left to act makes your hand worth less as well. If someone else wakes up with a monster, then your hand is even worse.

So I'd say it's an easy fold given this information.

Brad

[IgorSmiles]

I was hoping we'd hear back from the World Champ on this post. It sounds like Fossilman is saying with 30X BB you should be willing to go broke with Jacks, particularly if no overcard flops. This seems a little oversimplified to me.

[SossMan]

Scooter,
This is a tough decision because of your position. In LP, this is an easy call. In EP, all three options come into play depending on the raiser.

If you flat call, and everyone else folds the pot will be around t5500. You will have t16k left. If you get one more caller, the pot will be t7500.
I'm curious to think why you think that there is a "high probability" of people coming in behind you. You said that most stacks are in the 10k range. Do people routinely call a raise that has already been called for a fifth of their stack?
If it gets reraised anything more than the minimum, you can safely give credit for a bigger pair and fold. If someone minraises, you can call and play for set value.

Can you reraise? Well, you said that the raiser is aggressive. You are likely ahead of his range of hands (AK/AQ, AJs, AA-99, 10% more hands like 56s or 22).
If you push, he likely even folds AK, only calling with AA-QQ. Pushing is risking too much, I think, to win too little, not because of his hand range, but because you have 6 players left to act behind you who might wake up with a hand.

I like flat calling in this spot. I'm playing a ragged flop very carefully, though, realizing that he still is an UTG raiser and your call should alert him that you have a darn good hand.

-SossMan

[Tyler Durden]

The first dozen responses that say to fold are skewed by the tone of the post, since it seems like you busted w/ JJ here.