PP 50+5 AJo on the bubble

Laomedon · #1 02-14-2005, 04:35 PM

So............ I made the correct move, right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

Button (t4411)
Hero (t1595)
BB (t904)
UTG (t3090)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t1100, BB calls t604 (All-In).

Flop: (t2004) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2004) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2004) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2004

Results in white below: 
Hero has Jc Ah (three of a kind, kings).
BB has 8d 5d (full house, kings full of eights).
Outcome: BB wins t1808. Hero wins t196.

J-Lo · #2 02-14-2005, 04:42 PM

yeah, easy push

slickterp · #3 02-14-2005, 04:47 PM

definitely. you got robbed, but you did the right thing.

jcm4ccc · #4 02-14-2005, 04:48 PM

I can't imagine that you didn't, but let's subject it to ICM.

I'll assume that the BB will call you no matter what. Your hand wins 63.56% of the time against random hands.

Fold:
Button 4411
Hero: 1445
BB: 1054
UTG: 3090
You win: 19.47% of prize pool

You bet, BB calls and BB wins:
Button: 4411
Hero: 691
BB: 1808
UTG: 3090
Your percentage of prize pool: 10.2%

You bet, BB calls, and BB loses:
Button: 4411
Hero: 2499
UTG: 3090
Your percentage: 30.59%

(.102) * (.3644) + (.3059) * (.6356) = 23.16% of prize pool

So putting him all-in is the better choice.
Let's go one further and see what hand is even for push and folding (at least according to ICM).

You need a hand which satisfies this equation:

(.102) * (1-x) + (.3059) * x = .1947
where "x" = the percentage your hand would win against a random hand.

Solving for x, we need a hand which would win 45.46% against a random hand:

(.102) * (.5454) + (.3059) * .4546 = .1947

The lower range of hands is T6o and T3s. These two hands are even for folding and pushing.

That doesn't seem right to me. Maybe somebody can tell me where I made my error.

bigredlemon · #5 02-14-2005, 04:51 PM

What's the alternative? Fold with AJ in the SB?
This is clearly just a bad beat post...

El Maximo · #6 02-14-2005, 05:08 PM

BBP where are you?