Re-raising all-in on the bubble

[ChrisV]

I think this is really, really close. You can forget about button folding, his odds are too good and he won't be running a pure steal (75o or whatever) against the big stack. ICM has equity of fold at 0.173, call 0.294, meaning you need to be a 0.173/0.294 = 58.84% favourite. ATs vs KQo is 61.34% so you had good winning odds here. The question is how often you dominate him vs how often you are dominated by him. If he's the kind of guy who minraises any ace here, I'd push. If he seems somewhat tighter I like folding and then pushing any two next hand.

[Pepsquad]

I like your aggression, but IMO it's simply misplaced and mistimed here. The situation you describe is on of the few bubble scenarios where I'm just simply wanting to get into the money and not even thinking about winning for now.

With UTG as the short-stack, and blinds at 150-300, something is going to happen VERY quickly. Within the next two hands, shortstack has either doubled up, is crippled with ZERO folding equity or is gone. Why would you not wait for that to happen?

I'd like to hear others thoughts on this but to be honest, I'm folding 22-66 here! Flame away.

Pep.

[GauchoFish]

this is an easy hand to second guess yourself on all weekend....if you lose...if you win you don't ever think about it again.

i'd have made probably the same move because a good percentage of the time you'd be staring a weaker ace.


DECISIONS NOT RESULTS...DECISIONS NOT RESULTS


twas a good decision

[microbet]

Not that it would make a huge diff, but this doesn't include the BB who would at least get into the action with a premium hand.

Also, button wasn't tight right? I'd probably include lower PP's into the range of hands.

Both of those would make the number a bit worse for the push. Also, as you pointed out, there may be a very good chance to push next hand.

I think I fold, but I don't think it is a crazy push.

I think there is some FE here. Somewhere between 0-20 is about what I'd say too.

[Scuba Chuck]

I play about 400-500 SnGs a month. I am interested in this hand because I think this is a somewhat common situation. To correctly decide which move is the right LT move will make a slightly positive impact in my LT ROI.

Now that I have had time to think about this more, I still think folding is correct.

If Big Stack, who is UTG next hand, is pushing a lot, then let him lean on SS next hand. If so, no big deal, fold your hand. If he folds, then you push with any two. I think this situation is better than calling.

Frankly, I see the probability of villain calling your reraise-allin to be more likely 99% than 80%. I truly believe folding and applying the above strategy above will provide better LT results.

[mikey checks]

This could be a good play once you're playing 3 handed, but on the bubble I am strictly reraising cards that I want everyones money in the pot with me....
A10 is a bad reraise....not just because you lost, but because A10 is KQ or QJ is not that much of a favorite to play with.

Only time I make this reraise is when I'm chipleader and short stack is raising (maybe) or if I am high on mescaline [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[RobGW]

If BB was playing too tight you should be throwing around your chips stealing his blinds when given the chance. Also, I don't know how you could just chalk this up to a steal attempt. Sure, it probably is but he probably has some sort of decent hand and maybe even a damn good one. There is 0 FE imo. He's already put in 1/3 of his stack and he's getting over 3:1 on his money. Also, you can't assume that he is going to consider everything that you would. When I think of what my opponents are going to do, I think of it from their perspective not mine. EG. I would fold a flush draw if I was not getting odds to chase, but the majority of players wouldn't. I know that so I consider that when I decide what action to take.
So the answer to your question about fold equity is that you have none imo. However, I don't think that raising all in is all that bad a play. It would depend on how many times you get steal opportunities. The BB is playing tight but if the button is playing aggressive you may not get the chance to steal often enough. If that's the case then taking him on right now might be the best play. After all, you probably have the best hand. If you think you can steal in the next few hands then a fold may be correct. I havent run the ICM calcs but I am guessing it would say fold.