QTo.. OESD dragged for bets

btspider · #1 02-12-2005, 03:35 PM

First hand at the table. Debate the post if you want, but that's not the point of the hand. I only posted b/c UTG+2 is a near 90/0 LPP and MP1 posted in front. If MP3 posts aren't terrible, this isn't too bad for an MP2 post. So if its a mistake, its a small one (and *very* rare). postflop is much more important here.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $2. Hero posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 (poster) checks, Hero (poster) checks, 1 fold, CO raises, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Called closing the action in a huge pot.. looking for a big hand or draw.

Flop: (12.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, Button calls, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls, CO 3-bets, Button calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, Button folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

River: (18.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

went for the overcall. all those stop-n-go's looks like Jx, maybe a boat trying to drag me for bets. the raise behind looks like KK..

Final Pot: 24.25 BB
Main Pot: 24.25 BB, between CO, UTG+1 and Hero.

foofighter · #2 02-12-2005, 03:41 PM

When board is paired it usually means trouble if u hit your out which u did how can u like it much?

Shillx · #3 02-12-2005, 04:11 PM

If you play 300 table-sessions per month and everytime you started a new table you posted in MP2, you would lose about 40 BB per month. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I don't really see what you can do here post-flop. He might have AA, he might have KK but he might just be getting crazy with AK.

On the turn you are risking 2 BB to win roughly 16 BB. You will hit the nut straight 17.4% of the time. So not including the river action you need to be drawing live:

16(.174 - x) - 2(.826 + x) <= 0
x = .063

So you need to be drawing live > (.174-.063)/.174 = ~ 64% of the time. Is this the case?

Brad

btspider · #4 02-12-2005, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you play 300 table-sessions per month and everytime you started a new table you posted in MP2, you would lose about 40 BB per month.

[/ QUOTE ]

the post was only due to these extreme circumstances. i think the other poster, the near guaranteed limper, etc, make it debateably neutral once the EV from the extra hands i see before the BB comes around is factored in.

so what about a flop fold ala SSH p. 278 question #13. can i hit and lose enough to kill my odds here?