NCAABB 2/12 Unranked vs Ranked

[NoChance]

It looks like there will be one game for Saturday.

YTD: 12-2

My sportsbook (Canbet) does not have the lines available for tomorrow's game yet so I wont post the pick just yet. I wanted to give the people who are learning a chance to look over the card and see if they can find it. You all should be able to find these on your own by now. I'll post the game later after the line is available.

[null]

It's Pacific @ Utah St. -6 (or -6.5).

I had to go against the trend on this one, I bet Pacific +6.5.

[NoChance]

Yep, it's Utah St. I got them at -6.

(24) Pacific
Utah St -6

Iowa St was close but it opened at a pick.

[NoChance]

Utah St is now at -8.5 (Canbet). Hopefully some of you got in early.

[smartalecc5]

Sorry for the newb question, but why is Pacific the underdog even though they are ranked??

When ranked vs unranked teams appear, do you always take the unranked?

[NoChance]

A ranked team will typically be an underdog when they are on the road against a tough conference opponent who is just outside the rankings. In most cases, these teams are usually rivals and know each other very well.

Back when I was in college I read a book about handicapping trends. This one seems to give the best results and I have bet and tracked this trend for 15 years. When the unranked team opens up as a favorite on their own home court agaist a ranked team, I ALWAYS bet on it. This trend usually hits somewhere between 55%-65% each season but has been as high as about 80%. This year it is above average so far.

The average gambler who knows nothing about how lines work or nothing about the teams sees a ranked team getting points and bets on the ranked team because they don't understand how the ranked team cannot be the favorite. This usually keeps the line down a couple points from where it really should be, thus giving this trend a little extra value which makes a huge difference in the long run in winning percentage.

I don't know any other way to explain this but because there is a number (national ranking) next to the visiting team, it promotes action on that team giving the home team extra vbalue even though in many cases the teams we are betting on are most likely very close to being ranked. In many cases they are ranked the following week and then we are betting against them in the exact same situation.

I hope this helps.

[20Five]

Great explanation NC [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[sicvic]

Pacific is the underdog mainly for 3 reasons:
1) @Utah State
2) Utah State has been blowing out teams
3) Pacific is 1-30 @ Utah State

[20Five]

Im in, -8.5 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[NoChance]

Down in flames [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Utah St. had a 9 point lead with about 3 minutes left and lost the game outright.