5/10 ub hand

[jerrybai125]

5/10 UB I open for 35 MP1 with red Tens playing 10 handed. MP3 calls (no read on him) though I should have a solid image. Both 1k stacks.

Flop: KdJdTs

I bet out the pot 85 he raises the pot to 340... I??

[thebroker]

Push. It really is that simple.

[jerrybai125]

How is it so simple to push. What can i beat that he would play like that? What semi bluffs can I beat? I dont see any, A9d, Q8d, 98d maybe? I had a strong feeling he had AQ or JJ and maybe KJ, am i being way too weak tight here? Due to me raising preflop from an early position, if hes solid, since i have no read, he has to have me beat, does anyone agree?

[the alex]

With no read on him, he could have KJ, AK, or AQ. Mathematically, he's more likely to have AQ than AK or KJ.

Fold and give him a "nh." If he's making bets like this on boards like this and can't beat a set of tens, you'll pick him off. Watch him for a bit. For all you know he's a donator... For all you know, he thinks you're a donator. You'll see.

[Voltron87]

Push.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
Am i being way too weak tight here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

Think about how he would play the nuts. Heads up is he really going to play AQ this way? Who is that scared of a flush (we are not multiway here)?

[ QUOTE ]
Due to me raising preflop from an early position, if hes solid, since i have no read, he has to have me beat, does anyone agree?

[/ QUOTE ]

You raised in EP, there are a lot of EP raising hands he could beat which you could beat. You have any Ace diamond semibluff, AK, QQ, AA , KJ, and KT beat. AQ, KK, JJ have you beat solid and AQ you have a decent redraw. Plus if he is as tight as you think he might fold JJ to a all in reraise, a show of ridiculous strength.

[the alex]

1.) I must clarify my earlier post by saying that the chances of Villian having the three hands in order are:

AQ
AK
KJ

2.) Hero has no read on Villian. For some reason, Hero thinks that he [Hero] "should have a solid image." He never says that Hero has a solid image. This adds to the argument that this hand is a guessing game.

3.)

[ QUOTE ]
Think about how he would play the nuts. Heads up is he really going to play AQ this way? Who is that scared of a flush (we are not multiway here)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, Voltron. But I disagree with you here. This is a scary flop if you don't have AA-TT, AK, KQ, or of course AQ. Putting someone that you have no read on to be bluffing because you like your hand is not very profitable, so we can agree that he has a hand.

4.) I think that we can give credit to Villian as to have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, or KQ. I believe that ruling out AA and KK is safe based on preflop play and I think QQ is safe to rule out as well but let's keep it in the mix due to uncertainty.

Hero v. random QQ: 2:1 fav
Hero v. random JJ: 9:1 dog
Hero v. random AK: 17:3 fav
Hero v. random AQ: 6:4 dog (liberal stat)
Hero v. random KQ: 3:1 fav
Hero v. random KJ: 4:1 fav

Hero v. QQ, AK, KQ, KJ: roughly 59:21 or 3:1 fav
Hero v. AQ, JJ: roughy 30:10 or 3:1 dog

Giving QQ and KJ less scrutiny because many random players playing 5/10 NL online will reraise with QQ or fold KJ to the raise PF.

Of the 6 hands that you can put your opponent on, you are 3:1 against and I would like to deal with QQ and and KJ with half scrutiny, so I'd say that you are making a 3:2 decision at whether you're a 3:1 fav or dog.

This could justify pushing, and though I said fold because if you're down, you're down and if you're not, you're opponent will give his money away again. This is push or fold. I still say fold.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that ruling out AA and KK is safe based on preflop play and I think QQ is safe to rule out as well

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes no sense.

You're idea that "He's enough of a fish to give his money away later" is a bad one. How are you so sure he is such a big fish? How are you so sure you can get your money in in a better situation anyway? Bad idea. Push this hand and you can still take advantage of him later.

Bottom line you are only behind AQ, KK, and JJ. Against AQ you win 38% which gives you a big enough margin of error for the times he has AK or KJ. And you might have folding equity for a push here against JJ if the player is weak and tight. This is an easy push.

[cwl]

when he has AQ its just not all that bad. if you started with 1k and you fold your left with 880. if he has AQ and you get all in here you ev is worth 788. he doesnt have to have one of the hands you beat very often because you lose so little when behind and win so much when ahead. KK/JJ are a problem but i think your wrong to focus to much on the straight possibility. if you can somehow conclude he is very likely to have specifically KK/JJ then you can fold but otherwise you should just push.

[the alex]

[ QUOTE ]

That makes no sense.

You're idea that "He's enough of a fish to give his money away later" is a bad one. How are you so sure he is such a big fish? How are you so sure you can get your money in in a better situation anyway? Bad idea. Push this hand and you can still take advantage of him later.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you and say that this is not an "automatic push" situation, but an all-in or fold situation. I'm not saying that he's a fish. I'm saying that you don't know.

[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line you are only behind AQ, KK, and JJ. Against AQ you win 38% which gives you a big enough margin of error for the times he has AK or KJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point and I don't feel that all-in is a bad move, just not a "better move" or "the move that I would elect." What about the margin of error in which you are against JJ and are a 9:1 dog? The odds of him having AQ are almost 3X better than him having JJ, so you can figure that for every 10 times that he has JJ, he has AQ 30 times, so you will win about (1+12) of (10+30) times meaning that when you're behind, you will lose 27 of every 40 times giving you a win rate of about 33%, not 38% which isn't much of a difference, but 38% alludes to a 3:2 dog spot instead of a 2:1 dog spot.

I'm saying that if he has you beat, you don't look so good and if he doesn't and he's making this move, he will make many more bad moves similar to this.

I agree that if you have him beat and you push, you can still take from him, but if you push and you're beat, you lose money that you don't need to lose. The only situation where you win long term, I feel is by folding which I see as a win-win situation, whereas pushing in win-lose.

[ QUOTE ]
And you might have folding equity for a push here against JJ if the player is weak and tight. This is an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't place anything on the possibility of him folding JJ. You don't know him. I don't think folding JJ should be added to equity. If you're pushing, you're pushing because you feel you are a 3:1 favorite not because if you have the worst, you're only a 2:1 dog.

You're not against a random hand. You're against AQ, JJ, AK, KQ, QQ, or KJ. QQ and KJ are questionable because of the PF action, so there is an even chance that you are beat or not with you having a slight advantage, but if you fold the worst hand, you won. If you fold the best hand, your opponent will make this move when you're best again to a better board for you.