Losing 15 BB in 7 hands... - Page 3

pudley4 · #21 02-11-2005, 02:57 PM

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A question about the KTs hand... Is this still a raise after two limpers even if I did not post?

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Absolutely. You still are likely to have the best hand, you have a hand that plays well multiway (in case the blinds call), you have a hand that plays well against few players (in case everyone else folds), you may buy the button (this is very helpful), you may get the flop checked to you and you can take a free card...

Lots of reasons

ElSapo · #22 02-11-2005, 03:23 PM

Yes, there are lots of reasons. I'm still not enamored of KTs, however. That said, I'm obviously in the minority and the hand has more value than I give it credit for. But how low are you going with this? QTs? JTs? JQs? 99?

I didn't mean for this thread to turn into a pre-flop discussion... I can read some once I get home I guess.

scrub · #23 02-11-2005, 03:37 PM

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Yes, there are lots of reasons. I'm still not enamored of KTs, however. That said, I'm obviously in the minority and the hand has more value than I give it credit for. But how low are you going with this? QTs? JTs? JQs? 99?

I didn't mean for this thread to turn into a pre-flop discussion... I can read some once I get home I guess.

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I think it's an automatic raise with all of the hands you listed unless you're dealing with a solid limper who is likely to have a dominating hand and will play v. well after the flop.

scrub

Redeye · #24 02-11-2005, 04:13 PM

I'm interested in others thoughts on the AQ hand. I'm wondering if calling this down isn't a bad play here. Assuming villian bets on the river we're getting 11.75:2 effective odds to call this down. In order to break even we'd have to win about 15% of the time, or (I may be wrong about this) split the pot about 30% of the time. Given some possible 3-bet hands it would seem that the odds of villian having AK here would be great enough that this call down may show a profit.

There are:

1 JJ left
1 TT
3 AA
3 QQ
6 KK
12 AK

Giving 12/26 or 46% chance villian has AK. If villian is aggressive at all and you could throw in hands like AQs or something like 99 and 88, this would increase the chance that we are atlease splitting. Also, we have outs against QQ, KK and AK here.

Anyone agree with this analysis?

Buck_65 · #25 02-11-2005, 04:28 PM

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I'm interested in others thoughts on the AQ hand. I'm wondering if calling this down isn't a bad play here. Assuming villian bets on the river we're getting 11.75:2 effective odds to call this down. In order to break even we'd have to win about 15% of the time, or (I may be wrong about this) split the pot about 30% of the time. Given some possible 3-bet hands it would seem that the odds of villian having AK here would be great enough that this call down may show a profit.

There are:

1 JJ left
1 TT
3 AA
3 QQ
6 KK
12 AK

Giving 12/26 or 46% chance villian has AK. If villian is aggressive at all and you could throw in hands like AQs or something like 99 and 88, this would increase the chance that we are atlease splitting. Also, we have outs against QQ, KK and AK here.

Anyone agree with this analysis?

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This is exactly what I initially thought when I glanced over that hand, so I'm glad to see at least somebody else has the same idea. I think the pot is just barely large enough to call it down.

scrub · #26 02-11-2005, 04:32 PM

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I'm interested in others thoughts on the AQ hand. I'm wondering if calling this down isn't a bad play here. Assuming villian bets on the river we're getting 11.75:2 effective odds to call this down. In order to break even we'd have to win about 15% of the time, or (I may be wrong about this) split the pot about 30% of the time. Given some possible 3-bet hands it would seem that the odds of villian having AK here would be great enough that this call down may show a profit.

There are:

1 JJ left
1 TT
3 AA
3 QQ
6 KK
12 AK

Giving 12/26 or 46% chance villian has AK. If villian is aggressive at all and you could throw in hands like AQs or something like 99 and 88, this would increase the chance that we are atlease splitting. Also, we have outs against QQ, KK and AK here.

Anyone agree with this analysis?

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I thought about it--I'd probably call down HU, and I think you can make a case for calling down here.

If I was going to continue with the hand, I'd probably checkraise the turn, though.

scrub

chux52 · #27 02-11-2005, 04:36 PM

im confused why he should bet the flop on the AJs hand?

J.R. · #28 02-11-2005, 04:37 PM

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QTs? JTs? JQs? 99?

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it depends on your image and the limpers and the blinds but generally speaking, you'll often have position, intiative, deception and better postflop skills than your opponents. In light of all that you don't need a super hand to make the pfr +ev. My preflop thought process is something like: do I have reason to not raise all of those hands? At 2-4 I would imagine I almost always do not have such reason with no raise in front. All three of those hands are easy raises IMO. Play some 1-2 6-max and get comfortable opening up your game, pounding is fun and sooo profitable.

Redeye · #29 02-11-2005, 04:40 PM

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This is exactly what I initially thought when I glanced over that hand, so I'm glad to see at least somebody else has the same idea. I think the pot is just barely large enough to call it down.

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For some odd reason I've been running into this situation a ridiculous amount lately with large aces and a doubly paired board. I've actually found that people have been taking shots at these types of boards and I've split/won a large percentage of them. However, with such a small sample its probably being a little results oriented. I feel that the pot here and possible hands villian could have make this an attractive call down though.

bobbyi · #30 02-11-2005, 04:47 PM

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I bet the flop with AJs. The turn bet is okay, I guess, but given that you checked the flop and the top card paired, I don't think you're convincing anybody fold a pair. So I think it's really important that you bet the flop, or just completely give up and only bet the turn if you hit something.

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I would always bet the flop here. But, having failed to do so, I don't agree that he should just give up. I think betting the turn is better than checking. I agree that it's unlikely that someone will fold a pair, but sometimes they will and, more importantly, there is no reason to believe someone has a pair, especially with the pair board. It's pretty likely we have the best hand here and we should protect it. We don't wanted to give opponents with unpaired cards a free shot at their six outers.