Crazy loose early in the tourney.

[PoBoy321]

I don't remember the specifics of this hand, so I'll get it as best I can, since my question is more theoretical than dealing with this specific hand.

First hand of a $20 SnG at Interpoker. I'm in the SB with KQo, and there are like 6 limpers to me, and I complete, BB checks. Flop comes 8TJ rainbow. I lead for $120 into a $120 pot. 2 folds, one MP player pushes, a few folds, the CO calls and is all in and the action is back to me.

I called and MP player showed QT and the CO had AJ. Turn was a K and I took down the pot.

My reasoning for making the call was that I had 2 overs and an OESD. I was getting a little better than 2:1 on my money, which would leave me with 4500 in chips and an easy slide into the final 2 so long as I didn't do anything (else) terribly stupid. I realize that it worked out in this case, but I've seen similar plays in the first few hands of a tournament where several players will be all in and I've just been wondering if making a gamble like this in the early stages of a tournament to have a dominant chip position for the rest of the game is a viable strategy.

Any thoughts?

[david050173]

making up some of the info

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=763300
pokenum -h kd qh - as jd - qd tc -- 8c th js
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js 8c Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Qh 327 36.21 555 61.46 21 2.33 0.374
As Jd 435 48.17 468 51.83 0 0.00 0.482
Tc Qd 120 13.29 762 84.39 21 2.33 0.145

So making this play means you max ITM% will be 37%. That is particular great. And personally I think is about as good as it comes for you. If he had q9 or someone had limped with AA, you are winning 24% of the time. Someone with 2 pair gives you just over 30%. Put that all together and I am guessing you are going to be eliminated 2/3s the time by making this call. And ITM% of 33 makes it really hard to be profitable. And remember even if you win this hand, you are not assured of making the money.

Now you might be able to make an argument that you big stack will make you a favorite to come in 1st so you can get by with a lower ITM.

Using the ICM model, and to make it simple lets assume you end up with 4500 and the remaining stacks are 1500. You ev is 51 while the other players are 21. If you fold the winner has a ev of 36.88 and you have 20.38.

So in the first case lets say you win .37*51 gives you an ev of 18.87. So this is an ev- play unless you can win 40% of the time. I am not sure what range of hands you can place to all ins on that will result in that happening

[The Yugoslavian]

Fold preflop.

That is all.

Yugoslav

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop.

That is all.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking. It’s 5 bucks...!!

The only reason someone should fold this PF is if they're completely imcompetent post-flop.

[Elektrik]

Blind structure at Interpoker is 7.5/15, although I would still call. I would check the flop, and call a small bet but fold to a larger one. Yes, you have two overs, but given the action it's very likely that one if not both of them are no good (ie he has QT, a queen doesn't help you). You're probably at best even money, if that, situation when you call the two all ins. I don't put all of my money in the pot for that; you have a whole SNG to get an edge on these people.

[realbad101]

The pre-flop call is fine.

I found myself in a similar situation last night, with AK and the board QJ. I lead out with a pot sized bet and folded to an all in and a call coming back to me.

I guess my point is, I now think for your case and mine, leading out into a multi-way pot this early in the tournament is wrong. There's just too much chance that the flop connects with your opponents and they will raise either all in or close enough. And a draw, even a good draw like this one, is at best 50% to win. Too much variance this early on in the tournament. While I don't advocate passive play typically, I think this is one of those cases where you gotta check and hope it comes back to you cheap. If this comes back with too expensive you have to fold.