Home game, Terrible beat, probability question

mooks · #1 02-10-2005, 03:34 AM

Home game, NL. I'm the givee of the terrible beat. I'm holding A3 os, opponent is holding KK, flop is A K 8 rb.

Opponent moves all in, twice the size of the pot, I call.

What are my odds of beating the trips? I absolutely need 1 of 2 remaining aces, as well as an 8 or a 3.

I was thinking (2/47)*(6/46)=.0055%?

btw turn was an A, river was an 8

she was pissed [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

MOOKS

RiverTheNuts · #2 02-10-2005, 06:22 AM

You know 7 of the cards, and you need one to be an A, and the other to be an A, 8, or 3

(2/45)*(7/44) = .00707

She is 99.3% to win

Siegmund · #3 02-10-2005, 07:52 AM

You are both making it sound much worse than it is.

) You assumed the ace had to come first, which it doesn't.

A, then 8 or 3: 2x6 ways
3, then A: 3x2 ways
8, then A: 3x2 ways
or, of course, two running aces.
That's a whopping 26/(45*44)= 1.31% shot.

13 of 990 possible endings, if you don't like counting everything twice according to the order it comes.