NCAA 2/9

[MEbenhoe]

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Dayton +7.5 at Temple


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WTF? When did Dayton suddenly become such a bad team?

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Wow what an amazing comeback! Wow way to just miss covering! [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[CubsWinIn04]

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This Creighton team is too good for that, look for Creighton to come out tonight with some serious focus and get a nice victory over UNI.

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Benny "The Jet" Jacobson hits two 3's in the last minute, including one with less than a second remaining to lose but cover. Creighton wins by 1

[dlk9s]

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I guess I'm trying to arrive at some sort of proof that getting 115 on the S/U bet is higher EV than laying 110 (-110) for the 1.5 point cushion.

Also, trying to calculate how this changes when line moves to Duke +2.5.

Don't mean to be a nag, but I'm trying to soak up as much info on this stuff as possible and I like hearing about how others handicap and look for angles.

Again, thanks for the time!

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I think he's just saying that betting Duke S/U is almost the same as taking them and 1.5 points. The only situation where the 1.5 points matter is if Duke loses by 1. Thus, he feels the difference in payout between S/U and ATS is well worth the small chance that Duke will lose by 1.

Postscript: the Duke loss by won almost happened!

[slogger]

Thanks, but I understood what he was saying - I can read. I'm talking in terms of mathematical proof. Like the percentage of times a game like this is expected to be a one-point Duke loss factored into the odds you're laying for the 1.5 vs. the "money" you're receiving for taking them straight up. I'm trying to learn this stuff rather than just following people's picks like a sheep.

FWIW, I hopped on Duke when the line moved to 2.5. I would have bet the money line at less than 2 based on the recommendation, but I couldn't pass up the 2.5. Just as a sports follower (not a capper), I think giving Duke points at Cameron (betting on UNC last night) is (was) insane.

[dlk9s]

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Thanks, but I understood what he was saying - I can read. I'm talking in terms of mathematical proof. Like the percentage of times a game like this is expected to be a one-point Duke loss factored into the odds you're laying for the 1.5 vs. the "money" you're receiving for taking them straight up. I'm trying to learn this stuff rather than just following people's picks like a sheep.

FWIW, I hopped on Duke when the line moved to 2.5. I would have bet the money line at less than 2 based on the recommendation, but I couldn't pass up the 2.5. Just as a sports follower (not a capper), I think giving Duke points at Cameron (betting on UNC last night) is (was) insane.

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Ah...I see...you're looking for science. Don't have any of that stuff here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]