TPTK waits to raise until turn, but action is scary

[Nick Royale]

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Just to play the devil's advocate though, I'm not sure raising this flop will give us much information. Getting 14-1, my opponents can call with nearly any two.

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You're right about that I won't fold any hand by raising, but my point was that if I raise the flop it takes a better hand than for example KJ/QJ to raise the turn when SB bets out. You're not gaining any information on the flop if they call, but on the turn if they bet (and raise).

If you raise the flop, everybody calls and then SB bets out on the turn and UTG raises you can safely assume you're behind. Raising/calling will now not be an alternative (you're getting 1:5.5 from the pot and have not the odds to draw).

In this hand where you didn't raise the flop you ain't got no clue where you stand to UTG's raise.

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Also, while I won't be facing anyone with 2 cold by waiting for the turn, my edge will be much bigger on a safe turn card than it is on he flop

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Yup, your edge will be bigger, but but not much bigger. I ran some sims where I assumed you're up agaist 2 overs (KQ), a flush draw and another jack (WAY better hands than you'll be on average) and still you're equity is 37% on the flop. When a safe turn falls your equity only rised to 50% (it's natural for the equity to raise when you have the best hand on the flop and a safe turn falls). This raise is not near enough to wait for the turn. On the flop you have a hugh edge and 3 players trapped, charge them. If you look in SSHE (p. 161) the example where Miller waits for the turn is on a much more scary board QT8 2 of the same suit. It takes a very draw friendly board for making waiting to the turn correct.

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whereas on the flop, if I raise and someone draws out on me the pot size will make it a hard hand to lay down, and getting to the showdown will be expensive, eating up a lot of the profit from my flop edge?

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You can fold for 2 bets on the turn, but not for one. Calling one bet on the turn getting about 1:11 from the pot is easy and profitable. When you're pushing a big edge like you did on the flop and are ending up in another +EV situation on the turn, you shouldn't worry. Playing poker is about ending up in +EV situation and exploit them.


Cheers!
/Nick

[dreddie26]

maybey/probaly, but is still think you should raise on the turn, for the reasons nick said in his last post.

[randomfish]

37 percent? Really?

Alright, next time I'm 3-betting this flop!

Thanks for the lesson [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]