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#2
02-09-2005, 01:56 PM
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Re: NCAA 2/9
You are better off taking the +115 money line on the Duke game.
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#3
02-09-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: NCAA 2/9
[ QUOTE ]
You are better off taking the +115 money line on the Duke game. [/ QUOTE ] [censored], total brain loss move there. Well I guess the +1.5 will be nice if Duke would happen to lose by a point, kinda like how I took Seton Hall at +2 last night and they lost by a point. What are your thoughts on the other picks? I'll admit I'm new to this so I'm trying to pick things up wherever I can.
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#4
02-09-2005, 03:25 PM
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Re: NCAA 2/9
There is a game in the MVC tonight that has my attention. Creighton -2.5 vs Northern Iowa.
These teams are very equal, Creighton won earlier this year AT UNI on a last second shot. On paper this game doesn't look like much of a play, but if you look at Creighton's schedule, you'll see that this game is of the utmost importance. Creighton was spanked saturday at home by SMS, and has ROAD games @ Southern Illinois and @ Wichita State next on the schedule. A loss tonight would almost suredly mean a 4 game losing streak, and falling to the bottom half of the MVC. This Creighton team is too good for that, look for Creighton to come out tonight with some serious focus and get a nice victory over UNI.
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#5
02-09-2005, 04:13 PM
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Hey Wake, could you explain this?
I have my suspicions but I'm a complete novice when ti comes to this stuff. What makes the +115 money line a better play than +1.5?
Would you lay -115 for Duke +2.5? Why or why not? Thanks for your help!
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#6
02-09-2005, 04:29 PM
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Re: Hey Wake, could you explain this?
[ QUOTE ]
I have my suspicions but I'm a complete novice when ti comes to this stuff. What makes the +115 money line a better play than +1.5? Would you lay -115 for Duke +2.5? Why or why not? Thanks for your help! [/ QUOTE ] At +1.5, in most cases I need a Duke win to cover. although a 1 point loss wins for me, this would only make up a very small percent of the times I win this bet. Also this bet is at -110. So taking no points but getting +115 on the money line is a much better EV play.
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#7
02-09-2005, 04:38 PM
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Re: NCAA 2/9
I'm just here to say that I've got 2.5 units on Dayton +8, as I haven't seen any opinions to the contrary and confidence seems to be high on this one.
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#8
02-09-2005, 05:19 PM
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Re: NCAA 2/9
I also like Dayton +7.5 and also might take them in the money line as well. like Creighton -3, Alabama -2.5 and Kansas -8 and also like the Baylor Texas Tech under 145
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#9
02-09-2005, 06:23 PM
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That makes enough sense, but...
I guess I'm trying to arrive at some sort of proof that getting 115 on the S/U bet is higher EV than laying 110 (-110) for the 1.5 point cushion.
Also, trying to calculate how this changes when line moves to Duke +2.5. Don't mean to be a nag, but I'm trying to soak up as much info on this stuff as possible and I like hearing about how others handicap and look for angles. Again, thanks for the time!
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