5CS - Hand Reading And River Betting

[tanda]

Heads-up on the river:

You have: (Q) - A - Q - 7 - K
Opp has: (X) - J - 9 - 8 - A

Five players were dealt cards
Three players saw third street
Two players saw fourth street and the river

You completed immediately after the bring-in, two players called and the bring-in folded.

Action has been bet-call on every round with you lead betting.

Suits are irrelevant.

No reads on the opp.

Anybody bet the river?

In real life, I bet and the opp folded. I seriously considered checking.

Further analysis has led me to believe a check is correct.

The only purpose of a bet on the end is to get a weaker hand to call or a stronger hand to fold. Obviously, a stronger hand (pair of aces) will not fold. So, a bet would have to be for value.

Assuming the opp will not call if he cannot beat my board, then with an AKQ board, he will fold unless he has a pair.

What pair can he have? Obviously, he may have a pair of aces. How likely is it that he has anything else? It is unlikely that he would have Js wired but never bet or raised. A pair if 9s is somewhat unlikely because 1) (9) - J is not likely to be played in this situation and 2) many players would raise with a pair of 9s when heads-up. A pair of 8s is unlikely as (8) - J is an unlikely starting hand and, again, he might have raised on fourth street with the pair. Thus, it seems unlikely that he will call with a hand that you can beat.

Also, all of those hands (Js, 9s, 8s) are likely to be bet if you check. He will assume that you have been pushing an ace high hand (semi-bluffing) and have shutdown on the river. It is very common to see an ace high hand bet until the river and then check. Then, a small pair that has been calling senses the pair is good and bets.

So, many of the hands that are strong enough to call but worse than yours will bet anyway if you check. And, when he has the pair of aces, you will lose one bet and not two since he will presumably raise with that pair.

Comments?