Is there a Satellite Strategy, or is it a crap shoot?

[dy829]

My first experience playing tournament satellites was at this year's Poker Finals at Foxwoods. I played in a $300 limit hold 'em satellite (cost around $45, started with 500 chips, 15/25 blinds 1st level, blinds moving up every 15 minutes to 25/50, 50/100, etc).

With such a short amound of starting chips (at least to me) it seemed that people were generally treating the whole thing as a crap shoot. You can't wait around too long before the blinds eat you up, but if you lose a pot or two you're out. Even when someone won a pot, they could easily give it back on another hand.

With the Poker Championships coming up at the Taj, I've been wanting to take another crack at the satellites. I plan on trying no-limit hold 'em satellites this time versus limit at Foxwoods. I'm guessing the set-up will be about the same.

With everyone starting short stacked, is there a good satellite strategy (better to be more aggressive vs. conservative)? Or does winning mostly depend on who gets the best cards in a short amount of time? I'm also used to starting with 2K in tournament chips at Foxwoods Saturday tourney so was not used to starting with 500. I was at a bit of a loss when playing the satellite at Foxwoods, although it was a fun atmosphere at the table. Any advice on adjusting to & playing satellites is appreciated.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Yes, there is a large luck factor in satellites, but they are nowhere near a crapshoot. In fact, the satellites at FW tend to offer more play than any other venue I'm familiar with, at least for the price.

In the $300 sats, you get T500 to start, you say? I'm not sure, because I haven't played any this year. I know that in the $500 sats you get T1000, and T1500 in the $1000 sats, all with the same blind structure. So, the play is quicker/shorter in the smaller buyin events.

You say you know how to play T2000 in chips. OK. What do you do on Saturdays when you've got T2000 still, and the blinds have gone up to 50 & 100? It's really the same thing, in many ways. You've got 20 bets in your stack, and limits are going up in 15 minutes, at which point you'll have 10 or so bets. You play each hand the best you can given the situation, make good decisions, and hope for the best. Don't be desperate, and don't think you have to win a pot quickly or else. If you fold through the blinds the first level, you're only losing 8% of your stack, which is no big deal. Play your cards, play your opponents, and remember you have to eventually win all the chips, so don't fold because you think you're only a small favorite, or are afraid you MIGHT be behind. Play to maximize your chip EV, just like a cash game. The only tourney factor here is the short-stacked nature of you and/or your opponents means most of the betting will be done early, and somebody will be all-in. Other than that adjustment, it is just like a cash game.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)