Rare spot to call 2 cold?

[Zez]

Live 4-8, very very loose players. Big pots.
I'm SB. BB is tight agressive 2+2er, UTG is new to the table (his 6-12 game broke and he's waiting for 10-20) but has been in to see most flops since he arrived.

UTG limps, two calling stations call. I find myself with
K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and raise. BB and all limpers call.

10 sb in pot.

Flop:
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet, BB raises, UTG re-raises. All fold to me. 16 sb in pot.

The pot is offering me 8:1 and I'm certain I need to spike a K to win. The odds of that are 11:1.

I can make up for the deficit by check-raising if I do get my set, but not having the K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes me unhappy.

Call two cold?

[sean c]

The odds on your two kings are 22.5 to 1 assuming the king of hearts doesn't make anyone a flush. Its an easy fold.

[Derek in NYC]

Your odds of spiking a king are 23:1 on the next card, not 11:1.

[Zez]

Here's my math:

Method one:
There are 45/47 * 44/46 ways to not get a K on the turn or river. This is 1980/2162. Therefore, there are
1 - (1980/2162) ways to get a king on the turn or river.

This reduces to 1/11.9 or approx 11:1 against.

Method 2:
There are 1081 turn/river card combos. Of these, one is KK.
There are 45 containing the Kh and 45 containing the Kc. The total possibilities are then 91/1081 which is again 1/11.9 or 11:1 against.

Let me know if my math's wrong cuz I'm not seeing it.

[shadow29]

Right, but are you really going to the river UI?

[Richard Berg]

When calculating immediate pot odds, you can only consider the cards that will come on the turn. The river card might help you as well, but it'll probably take another bet or 3 out of your wallet to get there.

[Yads]

Because the pot is offering you 8:1 only to see the turn not both turn/river. Your odds of hitting a king on the turn are 22.5:1. Easy fold.

[Derek in NYC]

Or to put it differently, you will need to pay at least 1 bet to see the river card, when the turn gets bet. So you can't consider yourself as paying only 1 bet to see both cards. When you figure that you're paying 2 bets (at least), the odds go back to the 23:1 figure eveyone is quoting.

[BigEndian]

Your math on your odds is fine enough. But you aren't taking into account the two bets (at least!) you would have to pay to get there. This is about as safe a fold for KK as they come not having the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Even with the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I think I would fold this.

- Jim