On the Bubble - intereting puzzle

[Scuba Chuck]

Yeah, that's a tough read 3 or 4 tabling. Thanks for your response, though.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Gramps. Those are my thoughts exactly. I know I shouldn't have even posted. I am just more surprised by the AK call by BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would prolly call with AK I must admit.

[Gramps]

I think it was a really good post, a lot of people would take the safe route here even if they knew BB wasn't loose. Good to think through things like that. Just sucks he had AK, that he called, and that his 70%'er held up.

At least you made a few Sklansky dollars... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[iMsoLucky0]

Another consideration to make here is what level you are playing on. At the 33 and smaller levels, I would expect that you would get called here much more often. However, once you get to 55 (maybe), and definitely into the 109s and 215s, I think that this is a push, every time and I make it with any two cards.

The position you are in here is a great opportunity to take control of the tournament and put yourself in the driver's seat to win first. Push here, push the next hand, and as Gramps showed, you will have 4000 chips compared to 2400, 1400, and 200.

At this point you fold, and pray that the 200 stack wins his allin hand, so that you can steal even more chips from the two medium stacks.

Yes, sometimes they will wake up and call with JJ+ or AK (if they're not worried about just making it ITM), but load up pokerstove, and look at your odds of them not calling + your odds of winning if you are called.

Like I said, I think it all results in making this an easy push, giving you the opportunity to cruise into first.

[NuklearWinter]

I would raise to 2-3x BB... either 1050 total or 1125.
If he pushes, I fold and assume he has either 7's or better, or A-T or better, which would put me at 30%. Easy decision.

[iMsoLucky0]

Raising to 2 or 3X the BB is the worst possible move here, IMO. The reason it is so bad is because any good player will push in over the top here with any two because he knows you cant call on the bubble.

[lorinda]

I'm semi-new here... does +$EV mean plus cash EV (as in EV of prize money), as opposed to plus tourney chips EV?

Yes. Although EV tends to be used to also mean the same thing, $EV is more specific.

Lori

[Roan]

I am not willing to go broke on this hand, there is no way I go all in preflop. The worst thing you can do in a SNG is finish 4th, and pushing brings a 4th place finish into the realm of possibility.

If it were me, I would probably fold and wait for a better opportunity (maybe i consider a raise 2-3BB and fold if he comes over the top, depends on my read of him), I think there are still a lot of hands to be played and many opportunities to take over the chip lead, I don't want those 400 chips bad enough to justify finishing 4th.

[Mr_J]

They often pause for an earlier raise or 2.

[FishBurger]

I would just raise and I'll tell you why:

First, I know you (as well as myself) play at the $20 level. At that level, I don't believe that stack size correlates as closely to ending position as it does as higher levels. That is, I don't believe that a big stack with 45% of the chips will finish first 45% of the time. Many times big stacks at this level have no idea how to play once they get into the money.

Therefore, I would just minraise here and hope to steal the BB. If I get re-raised, I'm folding so that I can still make it into the money. Most likely, the BB is just as scared as you are and is just looking to make the money. You will get a fold here most of the time unless the BB has premium cards.

At the higher levels, this is probably a fold or a push, but at the lower levels, I think you can minraise and put your faith into the ineptitude of your opponents.