KK Hand

[pinebull]

Let me see if I have this right - button cc'd a 3 bet with J7 off. Given that fact, is it even possible to protect this hand? Is a c/r on the turn instead of the flop really going to make a difference to that kind of player?

[QTip]

and I quote...

"This sort of hand frustrates many small stakes players. The correctly build a big pot before the flop with their premium hand. The raise the flop and bet the turn, only to lose on the river to one of several opponents chasing longshot draws. What they do not understand is that it is their poor postflop plya, not their opponents' looseness, that costs them the pot.

After the atrocious preflop call, the player with jack-seven played his hand correctly.......the point is that the player with kings lost because he failed to protect his hand.....When the pot is already so big, protecting your hand on the turn is more important than raising for value on the flop."

Then there's a sidenote on page 165 about how some people disagree with that and why this is the right play anyway...check out the rest on page 165 before I get carpul tunnel (sp?) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[VTDuffman]

I think this is an easy flop call / turn raise. I *just* re-read this section of SSH at lunch today and it all kind of made sense...

We call this raise because we are confident that MP1 will be again consdiering his pre-flop raise/cap, and his flop bet. If we call the flop and get 3 overcalls, MP1 will most likely bet this turn blank. We raised the flop, and it scared MP1 off of the turn, which is exactly why Ed says you shouldn't raise in this situation.

So, if we just call the flop, there are only 12.25 BB in the pot at the turn. MP1 Bets, We raise, and everyone else has to face 2 cold. Button is now getting 7.5:1 on his 10.5:1 gutshot draw. Will he call? Probably, but he will be majorly incorrect in doing so.

The reason you don't raise the flop is because with 22.5 SB in the pot, button is getting 11.25:1 to hit his 10.5:1 gutshot on the turn. When his turn misses, since our flop raise scared MP1, Button is getting 15.75:1 on his 10.5:1 draw and is again correct to call.

If we call the flop and raise the turn, Button only has odds to call the flop. If we raise the flop and bet the turn, button has odds to call both times.

It's one of those things where raising the flop is +EV, but calling the flop and raising the turn is more +EV.

[GrunchCan]

And here is the crux if my disagreement with Ed here:

[ QUOTE ]
the point is that the player with kings lost because he failed to protect his hand

[/ QUOTE ]

The kings can't protect thier hand against this player. There is absolutely nothing KK can do to move this player off the pot on the turn. If he's willing to play a hand as bad as J7 PF and call 3 cold with it - when he knows he doesn't even have a glimmer of hope to win - then when the flop comes and gives him some chance, that's it. Button is seeing the river. It doesn't matter what Hero or anyone else does. Even if somehow it could be made 4 bets to Button, he would still call.

Since it is not possible to protect your hand against this type of player, we must abandon hope of doing so, and try to maximize value. That is done by raising the flop.

[QTip]

Great explanation thanks.

[GrunchCan]

The reason you don't raise the flop is because with 22.5 SB in the pot, button is getting 11.25:1 to hit his 10.5:1 gutshot on the turn. When his turn misses, since our flop raise scared MP1, Button is getting 15.75:1 on his 10.5:1 draw and is again correct to call.

Well, so what? If we hadn't raised the flop and it checked through on the turn, then Button would then be correct to check. Does that mean that's an argument for betting? It's a cyclical argument.

If we always ceased to bet or raise when our opponents would be correct to call, we'd never bet or raise.

[QTip]

VTDuffman just had a great explanantion of this a couple of posts down..

yes...he's probably going to suck you out either way. However, this turn raise puts him in a -EV situation, which is where we want to place players. He wins this time sure...but that's why we keep playing bad players.

[GrunchCan]

I will go to my grave stating the correct play here is to raise the flop. Sorry, friends. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[QTip]

One more thing the book mentions. Your raise on the turn makes the pot bigger when people call for the times that you do win.

[VTDuffman]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason you don't raise the flop is because with 22.5 SB in the pot, button is getting 11.25:1 to hit his 10.5:1 gutshot on the turn. When his turn misses, since our flop raise scared MP1, Button is getting 15.75:1 on his 10.5:1 draw and is again correct to call.

Well, so what? If we hadn't raised the flop and it checked through on the turn, then Button would then be correct to check. Does that mean that's an argument for betting? It's a cyclical argument.

If we always ceased to bet or raise when our opponents would be correct to call, we'd never bet or raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally hear what you're saying, I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I think you're playing too many what ifs here. What if our house gets hit by an asteroid in the middle of the hand? We die (and lose anyway). I know that was hyperbole, but you get the idea. I think that the chances of MP1 being scared off of a turn bet if we raise the flop are much higher than the chances of MP1 checking through the turn if we call the flop.

That said, our arguments are based off of the same thinking. Button is a moron who will call anything. He was incorrect to cold-call a 3-bet preflop. That said, I would rather make him correct to call the flop and incorrect to call the turn than I would make him correct to call the flop and correct to call the turn.

The player didn't lose b/c he failed to protect his kings. The player lost because variance is a bitch and someone who had no business being in the hand at all rivered a miracle gutshot. That said, a flop call => turn raise results in a bigger pot on the river for the 9 times out of ten that the miracle call doesn't fall for Moron in question.