The UNSTOPPABLE Decision-Support Revolution

[Nick_Foxx]

yeah this is real unstoppable... what about the millions of players who don't play hold'em

mike

[turnipmonster]

hi dan,
I don't buy it for a second, for a bunch of reasons. it's a nice idea, I just don't believe you've got an algorithm that actually does it, and if you did, you certainly wouldn't have phrased it the way you did (using the term "20 hours of play" instead of "X hands"). 20 hours of play to an 8 tabler is radically different than 20 hours of play to a 1 tabler, and someone sophisticated enough to write the kind of software you're talking about simply would not make this mistake in terminology.

--turnipmonster

[Dan Mezick]

It's just a matter of time before all popular games are supported by PT-like functionality by either PT clones or PT itself.

I'd surprised if there is nothing for 7-stud and Omaha8 by November.

[Dan Mezick]

Turnip,

You're right, see my previous reply to LostWages. I do have some crude software going but it's just past the alpha phase of development. Earlier (in 1Q2004) I wrote a complete hand history harvester which run 24X7 to capture 500K hand histories from Party's 30-60 HE game over a 1-month period. That 30-60 game no longer exists, but I am sure the players are still around, likely playing 15-30 now...

I will venture a guess: I will guess that there are dozens, perhaps hundreds, even thousands of very-low-key decision support software projects going on, right now, all over the world.

The new killer online player is likely an INTJ or INTP personality type with a Computer Science degree. This player type is probably not going to do well in a high-stakes B/M casino context, but he is literally born to play online, using PT or a PT clone augmented with his own home-grown decision support tools.

I'm sure there are dozens of specialized tools in use today that are home-grown and giving individual online players a very substantial edge online. The proof-of-concept work I've done confirms it is simple to do. The PlayerA/PlayerB rename problem and others will be solved. New useful stats will be collected.

Eventually, poker online will likely become a specialized form of quantitative/qualitative analysis.

One of the advantages of rolling your own software is that you can create derivative stats and even collect entirely new information.

Take peek at the link to my article (Hand History Harvesting) at the post at the top of this thread to examine likely implications of the coming revolution in online decision support tools.

[turnipmonster]

I hadn't read that far down when I responded, or else I wouldn't have posted.

honestly I fit your profile almost exactly (CS degree, etc) and I think that current player stats/decision support is very overrated, and a lot of times not all that accurate. true, it would be a killer app if you wrote something that gave your opponents possible hands with percentages (i.e. I c/r flop, I have a draw 20% of the time and a made hand 80%), but those stats are going to take forever to converge into anything useful.

also, the problem with matching different nicknames based on playing time/duration/limits doesn't scale particularly well, and that is a significant concern if online poker continues to grow.

--turnipmonster

[Chicanist]

Speaking as a Computer Science major, I'd be very very very surprised if you could actually get this to work with any reliability over 70k players. How rapidly do you think stats converge? And even more importantly, how much do you think they differ once you get to good players?

I can't imagine how 20 hrs of play is even close to enough to correlate these stats enough unless you're talking about running this on a game that has a really small # of people. Hell, if you're running it against eg 3/6 tables how will you even know if somebody switched their screenname? Just harvest tables for like a week and if they don't show up assume that they must have changed names?

good luck though.

[AngryCola]

That was a weak backdown.

Point for Lost Wages.

[illunious]

Seems like an easy solution when you have every players city. Am I missing something or did I just saved you a [censored]-ton of complicated programing?

I don't think getting 8k instead of 4k hands with a pro matters much. The losing players aren't going to change screen names, and they eventually bust out anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
The new killer online player is likely an INTJ or INTP personality type with a Computer Science degree. This player type is probably not going to do well in a high-stakes B/M casino context, but he is literally born to play online, using PT or a PT clone augmented with his own home-grown decision support tools.

I'm sure there are dozens of specialized tools in use today that are home-grown and giving individual online players a very substantial edge online. The proof-of-concept work I've done confirms it is simple to do. The PlayerA/PlayerB rename problem and others will be solved. New useful stats will be collected.

Eventually, poker online will likely become a specialized form of quantitative/qualitative analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely with this.