overpair on 4 flush board--bet the river?

captain_swing · #1 02-02-2005, 12:11 PM

I would really appreciate some discussion on the rationale for betting vs. check calling the river and what factors would swing the decision. My default play is to check call but I'm worried that is a leak. Opponent will have a flush about 35% of the time (if he is holding random cards). My thinking is he will have a harder time calling with hands I beat than with bluffing. If I bet do I fold to a raise? This opponent was loose passive though, so maybe my thinking is wrong.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

Turn: (3.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (5.66 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 5.66 BB

poboys · #2 02-02-2005, 01:34 PM

If you haven't already, see TOP for a good decision of value betting the river (also SSH).

I'd play it the same way you did. There are just not enough hands that you beat that are going to pay you off on a river bet. I'd check-call.

chief444 · #3 02-02-2005, 01:41 PM

Against a loose passive opponent, I believe betting and folding to a raise is much better than check/calling here. You're worried about being behind. But you need to realize that you don't even need to be good 50% of the time to make betting correct here. Worse hands will call. No worse hands will raise. Only better hands will bet.

Jonny Melon · #4 02-02-2005, 01:42 PM

You should bet this river, especially against a loose-passive. Do a search on the "Clarkmeister Theorem", which specifically deals with this topic. Basically, your L-P opponent will call you with a weaker holding often enough for this bet to be profitable. I wouldn't call this specific situation common enough to be a "leak", unless you mean you don't value bet the river enough in general.

Argus · #5 02-02-2005, 01:45 PM

Clarkmeister's theorem says that when:
It is heads up,
You are out of position,
The 4th flush card falls on the river,

You should always bet. Don't look at your hand or think about it. Just bet. I follow this like gospel, and I think I win more than my share of this kind of showdown. I almost always fold to a raise if I don't have the flush. I only call raises without the flush with a read, because most players do not bluff this.

poboys · #6 02-02-2005, 03:29 PM

Which hands do you think would call a river bet that you beat?

chief444 · #7 02-02-2005, 03:45 PM

Pocket pairs with no spade. Maybe even worse if the opponent is loose enough.

captain_swing · #8 02-02-2005, 04:16 PM

Thanks for the replies. I'm an underdog if he calls. I guess the question is am I a bigger underdog if he bets. That is probably the case with most passives. But if he was passive enough you could check and fold--hard to think that someone won't bluff at this 1/7 times though. Which returns to the original question. Will you get called by a hand you beat more often than he will bluff. I think it basically depends on how passive he is. Hard to see what he would call with here other than a pocket pair, a queen, and maybe an Ace.

Other ideas? Is my thinking wrong?