Semi-Bluff right or wrong?

[kowboy]

O.k. clearly this should go to poker theory. Opinions from other NL players were needed and I don't know if I would get those from poker theory readers. Im viewing this in long term. Pos/Neg ev is important in my overall play and I read a lot of posts from very good players who sometimes push with a good flop but not a made hand.

Example. Im on the button with AQh. full table, utg1 limps,utg2 folds two callers in the middle spots, cut off raises I call, everyone calls.

Flop comes. Kh,9c,8h.

Checks around to cut off who bets.

Now that we have a more precise play the theory now comes into question. If I raise this board everytime I see it, will it be a pos play. There's enough equity in the pot to justify me playing to the end but I cant get AK or the set to fold. Having this knowledge whats my play. Call to get more in or raise for value? In long term what makes or loses more money?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You're trying to theorize about something but, as you've qualified it, you've taken all the theory out of it. If you know he has a big made hand, and you know he won't lay it down, then it becomes a basic question of pot/implied odds.

In your example, you say that the specific pot and bet amounts (and even the precise board cards and hands) don't really matter. Ironically, those are the only things that do matter in this case.

[/ QUOTE ]
And stack sizes. Come on.

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
Example. Im on the button with AQh. full table, utg1 limps,utg2 folds two callers in the middle spots, cut off raises I call, everyone calls. Flop comes. Kh,9c,8h.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've just changed the entire situation from headsup to multiway, flip-flopped your position, and greatly reduced the strength of your draw. You do understand these factors matter A LOT, right?

[ QUOTE ]
Checks around to cut off who bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

HOW MUCH????

[ QUOTE ]
Now that we have a more precise play

[/ QUOTE ]

We do?

[ QUOTE ]
the theory now comes into question. If I raise this board everytime I see it, will it be a pos play. There's enough equity in the pot to justify me playing to the end but I cant get AK or the set to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you claim you have enough pot equity to continue? You might not.

[ QUOTE ]
Having this knowledge whats my play. Call to get more in or raise for value? In long term what makes or loses more money?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a reason why T.J. says drawing hands are death in NL. If, in the above scenario, you knew your opponent had AK or a set, and knew he wouldn't lay it down, you should fold to a pot size or larger bet- yes, fold the big nut draw- unless you could count on getting other opponents to call behind, or the stacks were deep, and you knew he'd pay off your flush, in which case you could call.

I know what you're trying to ask, but you've taken the theory out of it. The all-in semi-bluff push is an important and powerful move to use on occasion (moreso in tournaments than live play) but it absolutely depends on the chances that your opponent will fold his made hand some of the time (of course, there are situations where your monster draw is favored over the made hand, but it doesn't seem like you're talking about these).

Trust me, the theory forum will give you the same answer.

[MagikKid]

yeah,
how many Ac are there in a deck anyway?

Magik

[kowboy]

In the end you gave me what I was looking for. Your opinion on a good/great draw vs. player who wont lay there hand down. Thanx