Party 15-30 88 hand

[William Jockusch]

Probability indeed.

I threw this into Poker Stove. I gave opponent my own list of starting hands from four off the button. (I'm not going to list them here, but I tend to play moderately tight -- my VPIP is 19% at 8-10 handed 15/30 tables.)

Stove said Hero's hand had a 53% chance of winning on the river.

But now things get murkier -- we have to adjust opponent's hand based on their flop play. Since we don't know how opponent plays, this is hard to do. For instance, would this opponent fold AQ because they might be reverse dominated? Would they fold QJ because of the lack of showdown power? Might they sometimes check the flop if they didn't flop anything? Might they flat call the flop raise with AA or a set?

There are too many variables, and I don't see how a mathematical analysis could proceed.

I will say that the 53% figure suggests that check/calling is not "terrible". Check/calling is taylor made for situations where you have no idea whether your hand is good or not.