510 BB downswing

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway....the general point is that as much as we want to say 'dude...it's ridiculously unrealistic for a 2BB/100 player to drop 500BB' I think we need to remember that the 15/30 multi-tablers around here combine to play A LOT of freaking hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
Also remember that the probability calculations are based on the assumption that poker results are normally distributed. This may be a good approximation most of the time. But here we're talking about rare events-- events associated with the extreme ends of the distribution. So small deviations from normality can make a big difference. If the actual distribution has "fat tails," then the kind of events we're talking about may be significantly more likely than the estimates we're making.

[CORed]

Tha answer is obvious. Empire is rigged, Party isn't.

[tom]

subtract one. i am clearly not a pro, but actually had my first winning month!

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
your river check??? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You can beat 33/44 I guess but you can't expect, as a TAG yourself, to see another suspected TAG, call in the BB with anything that hits that flop.

[2ndGoat]

LOL, I don't have S/S 2 but he definitely recycled that from his Fundamental Secrets book, and probably recycled THAT instance from something else.

The thing I love about Mike Caro is when I'm reading something by him I can actually hear his "mad scientist" voice/demeanor in my head.

2ndGoat

[Viscant]

I have a suggestion. Why don't you guys pool your PT stats together and check on some things. Most notably...since you good players are losing, who's winning in these games now? New players? Old players? People who've been your ATMs in the past, people who were grinding out low rates (< .5/100)?

We've always been able to point to statistical analysis to prove that things aren't rigged. Why doesn't someone do that now just to give it a checkup?

[2ndGoat]

What we're missing here is multitude of 15/30 players chiming in with "all quiet on my front." ... no sense posting in this thread if everything is going as usual, or better. Out of all the 15/30 pros that read this forum, isn't it pretty reasonable that more have had losing a losing january than could be counted on one hand?

For the record, barring disaster tonight, January 2005 is the best month of my poker career. About 60% of my hands were at EmpartyNow 15/30, and about 60% of my winnings came from there as well. And I cashed out a couple times. And I have rakeback. And I'm sure I'm getting reguarly taken by that RGP fellow that probably believes partypoker abducts aliens to give them anal probes (and may have already done it himself).

By the way, if you guys really want to minimize these downswings, think about propping somewhere. The extra .75-1 BB/100 at 15/30 does a world of good... unless you determine the games are 1 BB/100 tougher everywhere outside of party, I guess.

Mind you, I can usually only get one or two propped tables at a time at 10/20 or 15/30, but party coexists with those tables peacefully, and those weekly checks really even out the bad times.

2ndGoat

[Siingo]

Well Dogmeat posted this.... But I do not think that this prove that PP is not rigged.

I know I'm a quack for posting this about DR 510 down swing, but

Hmm someone maybe should post more stats...

[davidross]

This thread has gotten a little out of control, so I'm going to post my final thoughts on the topic.

When I posted this I was just venting my frustration at going through my worst losing streak ever. I was operating under the impression that 300BB's was probably the worst I would have to live through, and I have done so every couple of months in the past. I can look at this in a couple of ways. 1) it was really two different losing streaks of 230 BB's followed by 3 winning days then a 300 BB losing streak again.
2) THe increased aggression of the 15/30 games lately leads to a higher variance making bigger swings possible. Just before the losing streak began I had won 7K in around 10 hours of play, and 13K in 8 days, clearly way above my average. These games are crazy aggressive lately, I've been 3 and 4 bet with the craziest hands, so I guess I have to expect some bigger swings.

Although I am extremely frustrated, I'm not concerned. Apart from making the mistake of withdrawing too much money from my EMpire bankroll, the loss is just a small fraction of what I have won and is easily replaced. I don't believe the games have changed drastically in a week or that my play has deteriorated, this is just a normal swing.

I am very grateful for all the kind words of support, and I really appreciate all of you eho took the time to PM me with constructive criticisms of my play. THis doesn't offend me in any way. I believe a lot of plays I have been very routinely making for 10 months may no longer be profitable in games that are capped 3 way pre-flop instead of 5 way for 2 bets. I need to make adjustments.

As far as taking time off, I don't think it's the answer for me. WHat I need to do is quit when I get so frustrated during a session that my play suffers, but I start each session playing as well as I can, and since I have a positive expectation every time I play, every day I take off costs me roughly $700. I have a vacation planned for next week where I intend to kick back and forget about poker for a week.

I'm lucky to have a great support system around me at home, and a lot going on in my life outside of poker. As angry as I get when I'm losing bad, I can put it behind me and take my kids out (saturday was Laser Tag, it was a great stress relief kicking 11 year old butt).

I managed to post a small win last night, I hope it will continue tonight.

As a final comment, A 27" flat screen RCA TV arrived at my house today courtesy of Empire Poker. I have been unable to determine what this is for. It may be for my affiliate work, or it may be a VIP reward, I'mnot sure.It may just be a $16,000 consolation prize!

Thanks for all the comments. Anyone wanting to discuss this further just PM me.

[Nick B.]

THe tv is from the royal flush club. You made 25000 points.