Hand to Talk About

kowboy · #1 01-31-2005, 07:32 AM

sorry didn't read results post before i wrote but I am interested to know what you would have done with an all in bet on fifth. Thanx

BluffTHIS! · #2 01-31-2005, 08:18 AM

Hi,

I think everyone has analyzed the hand from Mason's perspective completely (I bet $120 on flop not $100/check behind on turn & call reasonable bet any non-flush card and possibly not a 9 either or bet 1/3 pot if checked too).

It's even more interesting to analyze the other player's actual and potential play of his hand. His limping w/87s in that position might be debatable in some players' minds though I frequently do myself if the game is not extremely aggressive and the stack sizes are large enough in relation to the blinds. But now let's examine his play on the actual flop. As Mason said, his check and call on the flop with a gutshot straight-flush draw is certainly correct, but what about the turn as to both the actual ace that came and any other card that might have come?

With the ace that came if Mason had incorrectly as so many players would have done, bet the turn 1/2 pot or more, I believe he should fold based on the fact that he no longer has the equity of pairing to beat overcards, may be buried by AA from a tough opponent who would bet the nut full hoping to catch a player with 99/A9s/A5s or even someone who would put Mason on KK/QQ and think his draws still good, and with only 1 more card to come is not getting the correct price even for calling a 1/2 pot bet especially with the likelihood that if he hits Mason will fold to his bet or check behind.

Further, although his draw may look impressive, he too should consider the range of hands Mason might have which would of course include JJ-AA (and possibly TT/99 as well with some players), and most dangerously the dreaded AKh. Depsite the fact that if his killer nut the 6h comes he will bust Mason holding AA/99, his being out of position and the fact that any broadway heart could fill Mason (and the previously much discussed short stack Mason had thus not allowing him to bust him big if the killer nut should appear), all dictate checking & folding to any broadway card on the turn if bet by Mason.

Now what about 1) a heart comes turn, 2) a non-broadway non-heart comes, or 3) one of the other 6's comes? If a heart comes he should bet 1/3 of the pot in my opinion to elicit a call by a doubting overpair and give Mason insufficient odds to fill an overpair. If an offsuit 6 comes he should do the same. But the most interesting possibility is #2 above. In that case in his position I would bet the pot hoping to induce a fold by Mason and still having a decent draw if called.